Weekend Update 9-3-10

Tides....hurricane tides in fact.



Here's the projection right on up through the end of September. Though direction is correct almost all the time, the magnitude cannot be matched exactly, for sure. I might continue on with this experiment offline, but will not be posting it online beyond this date. It seems funny to me that people are more interested in exact or near exact magnitude of movement matches than they are with getting the direction correct. I guess they have differing trading interests. When I'm about to make a move, I want to know if I'm making that move into a market headwind (not good) or preferably with the market forces are on my side.

Weekend Update 8-28-10

Tide chart for the week below. Seems to be tracking fairly well...at times.


This will have to do for now...at least until I can find some better fit. This is the projection to the end of September....not real happy with the correlation, so think of it as an interim projection....lol. Need to find a new way to adjust one or some of the variables. Again, as mentioned earlier, not for trading....if you use these projections blindly you could lose your shirt, or pants for that matter.

Contemplation

Been working hard lately on a new trading system for stocks, possibly futures as well. As hard as it sometimes seems to be, I have to understand that price movement in one direction doesnt continue on forever. My bad experiece over the years seems to be centered around holding on to equity positions for too long, either watching a bad postion get worse or a good position reverse and evaporate my gains.

To keep things easy I am working on simple moving average two line crossover systems, both simple moving averages and exponential moving averages. I've developed an excel spreadsheet that imports daily data and plots the price charts as well as any combination of price, simple moving average and exponential moving averages. My premise for lazy trading is based on only closing price signals and taking a reversal position on open the following morning. Based on backtesting any of these combinations, the plan is to find the best combo for each stock and use it to get me into or out of positions based on the best results attainable. So far, things look promising, and time be willing, I'll see if I can share it. Fortuneately my skills with excel are such that I can easily changes the variables and see the results instantly. I know, I know, there are probably canned programs out there that will do that for you (Amibroker for sure), but what fun is that when you dont really understand what is going on in the black box. With excel, I can see everything right in front of me.

My idea is to run the system around mostly low priced stocks, under $10, and to take a position each time based upon a fixed amount, maybe $5,000. So, in other words, a $1 stock would be bought or sold at 5,000 shares, a $3 stock at about 1,500 shares. No preference for going long or short would be taken. The whole idea, and where I think the easy money lies, is riding the trends for as long as the system allows me to, without excessive whipsawing. Initially, I think no more than 60% of the entire portfolio should be invested in the system, so that for example, a total $50,000 portfolio would have no more than $30,000 in the system, therefore at $5,000 per trade, no more than 6 positions should be running at a time. All for now, we'll see where this heads and report later. Comments welcomed!

Weekend Update 8-22-10

Aaaaahhh, not so good this week. In fact, rather terrible....lol. Certainly the poor jobs report last thursday took its toll. Considering mixing in some 10 dma offsets into the formula in some fashion to see how that works out. I had no doubt that at some point we would have an epic divergence of the projection and reality, especially considering how large the projection was forecasting an upwave this past week. For now, I'll sit tight and try a few things...maybe some changes next weekend.


Tide chart below.

Weekend Review 8-14-10

Well, the nights are starting to cool off where I am...quite the change from what we have been having. Global warming, huh? Been a great summer weather wise though, so who's complaining?

Below charts sums up where we are at this point in August. Projection still tracking very well...havent made any modifications to the parameters this weekend, think I will stick with what I have for now and see how it handles the projected surge next week. Having said that, watch us go in the hopper for the week...lol.

Tickets have been gotten for the 2011 frozen four in Minneapolis next April...also for our annual trip to the Carribean early next year. Its all pay now, enjoy later. Go ahead and sit on my money for 6 months! Have a wonderful weekend, and hopefully I'll see you next time 150 points higher, though that does seem a bit of a stretch.

Weekend Review 8-7-10

Here are my two main charts for the weekend. The spx projection fell off a bit in the last couple of days but I will stick with the present chart settings and not try to fine tune it now. Interesting week coming up with WWW on wednesday...perfect chance for the market makers to take it down into or around that date, which also fits pretty well tidally speaking. I've been dabbling with some customized stock trading systems, but nothing quite yet to report.

One More Slight Adjustment

This time it's only a one day adjustment of the moving average. Fits extremely well for right now. So, if we have a one day 'shock', do I continue with the present projection or make a one day adjustment? I dont know at this point, decision to made later I guess. What I do know though is that if this model holds up over time, I may have to take it off the board. Seems to me it would be counter productive to make it public....I hope to make money off of it, you, on the other hand, are on your own. :-)

Weekend Stuff - 7/30/10

Here's the weekly tide chart. Supposedly a top coming up mid week, but if you check the composite tide-clx chart below, no such top will be found. Based on only two weeks of history, I have to go with the composite chart.



The new moving average used in my composite clx-tide charts seems to be working quite impressively. Of course, we havent had much in the way of volatility in this time span. What will be most interesting is how it holds up when the averages really start to move. I have to believe that the projection chart will not mimic these one day shocks we often get in the market, but we'll see. Having fun with it....just watching, comparing and shaking my head in awe. BTW, I have increased my long positions in anticipation of the August projections. We'll see how that turns out.

Mid Week Tweak

A small calibration change has been made to the projection model and seems to fit very well, at least for now. Basically I changed a moving average by 3 days and the results look like this. Lets see how it holds up for the next week or so.

I Meant to Add

Based on the results of the first week of spx projection, there will be no need to make any adjustments or calibrations at this time. I am sure as time passes here that some baseline adjusting will be needed, but for now, we sit tight and watch.

Just pondering here, but wouldnt it be nice if it is possible to mirror the spx movements with relatively good success in the future? Consider the opportunities. ;-)

Tidal Trend Update and SPX Projection Results

Below is the weekly tidal trend chart and the first week results of my spx projections based upon, in case you havent been paying attention, DW's clx model and my tidal model (see below). I wont elaborate on how the two are mixed at this point.

Tidally speaking, we should have entered a short weekly downtrend at the end of this week...but apparently no so based on friday's numbers. I think bears call it market manipulation or something similar:) More on the boys fingerprints on the markets later.

Well, first week of projecting the market I have to say was even more successful than I could have possibly hoped for. Other than the obvious take down of the market on wednesday afternoon and subsequent re-launch of the snp futures in the wee hours of thursday morning (check it out for yourself - the boys were hard at work), it appears our projection were spot on. Obvious that they wanted to clear out some long stops before what they have ahead of us. A word of caution, before you start trading off this model, lets give it some time for observation....there is such a thing as beginners luck...in any event, very encouraging start, lets see where it goes from here. It is said no one can project the markets and I believe that, but that doesnt prevent some of us trying. :-)

Weekend Update and Projection

I'll throw these two charts out there without commentary as I am about to head to Boston to take in a Sox game. Beautiful day, should be fun....hope yours is as fun as mine.

Something Experimental

That I just started working on below. It's a projection of the SPX for about 30 days ahead. Very, very experimental at this point...based on some input from Don Wolanchuks clx and my tide data. It looks ahead using his offsets combined with the cycles from the tidal data. I am sure I will need to calibrate the projections as time goes on because right now I have no idea how far out of calibration they might be. Anyway, I'll keep ya posted on a weekly basis and we can just watch any maybe learn something in the process. Tally ho ole chap!

Weekend Update 7-11-10

Back to inverted trends already? Does look like it. I still think we go up here at least to the end of August or early into September based on the tides. And there's more evidence but thats for a later time. Please excuse the lack of posts...been a very, very busy summer with way too many projects going on. Its what keeps us sane though, I guess.

Weekend Update 6-25-10

Let's see what the bulls got, if anything here. Can't really say its do or die time for them quite yet, but its quickly approaching. Probably one spark of good news would do the trick, but who really knows. Myself? Watching, with caution. Good to see the markets back in synch with the tides at any rate.

Weekend Update 6-20-10

Interesting that we have a turn on the longest day of the year. And it's supposed to be a high. For the bulls, I think it may be important that this next trend get inverted from down to up. If it happens I expect it to really begin a run to the upside. If not, well we can look for more garbage.

Crossover Update 6-12-10

Below is a chart of the snp crossover technique as I see it. You can see the 1,050 downside target was met with no further downside targets indicated at this time. We will be keeping an eye on any future targets as they develop.

Hey You, Get Outta the Boat !!

why, you ask? Because I need room to load up the boat. Yup, we are heading higher, much higher and I suspect with some speed. So, monday and tuesday I'll be in a real shopping mood.....for stock that is. May even take some futures positions. Next stop spx 1,400. Evidence you might ask? First of all, I reference the larger timeframe tidal chart below. Secondly, we have an upturn tidal date coming up on tuesday. Third, Don Wolanchuk's clx material points to an upturn in stocks with his 30 day offsets looking really bullish, and last but certainly not least, of course Joanne's snp xover techniques shown below having reached the downside target of 1,050as I had called. Too many things lining up for a launch for me to remain bearish. All these techniques of looking at the markets are not the commonly used methods...and thats why I like them. You could also reference the usual and normal technical indicators that are pointing up as well, but I'll leave that to the gazillion other blogs out there to do that.



BTW, she agrees. And she is, THE authority.

Weekend Update 6-6-10

Before I head to the airport for a flight to Texas I thought I'd throw this chart out there. It appears the boys had a little fun with the investing folks last fryday....a not too uncommon happening especially on the last day of the week. I'm looking for a reversal up on Monday and an inverted tide trend next week. I expect we'll have my 1,050 snp futures target hit sometime monday (probably monday evening). We'll see. And no, I'll have nothing to do with oil leaks in the Gulf next week....its the business of building a railroad lift span bridge to Galveston that has my attention.

Reason to be Bullish

Here's the mother of all tidal charts for your perusal. If you plot the dominant cycle of the tides, as I have, you'll see the very strong tendency of the markets to follow these swings. It's hard to argue with this chart.