Trading Test Update 9-11-10

Not much happening in the portfolio of randomly picked stocks this week. As I said, the system called to go long on VLNC which was done on the open on 9-9-10 buying 5,747 shares at .96 or roughly $5,000 worth. We are now long 3 stocks and short 2. EXAS had a great week and has been on a tear since mid July vaulting from 3.31 to yesterdays close of 5.55. One to keep an eye on.

Weekend Update 9-11-10

Below are the tide chart and spx projection through the end of the month. I'm on a short schedule this morning so gotta run. Family reunion type stuff. I'll post some trading modely results on sunday.

Looking A Little Deeper

at VLNC...below is the backup sheet for "V". Just by the narrowest of margins, the stock was signaled as a buy, based almost entirely on the boost from yesterdays burst up. Does not matter how narrow or weak the signal is, the trade has got to be taken. It could end up as a whipsaw, but thats part of the whole process. You take some lumps on the whipsaws to guarantee you are on the right side of the trade when the trend begins. Taking a closer look at VLNC and how it has acted within the sytem:

In 1225 days of trading the system has called for 25 trades, about 50% winners and 50% losers. VLNC has not been a particulary great stock to trade within the past 4 or 5 years. However, having said that, a great breakout of this stock would give us a very nice return. Average number of days between trades has been about 49 days. A great example of a trending stock (in this case downward) has been CNXT. Thats the kind of return for each of these stocks that we want to see. Patience is key.

Trading Test Update 9-8-10

We had a trade signal change tonight on VLNC. Signal change is from short to long based on the stocks surge yesterday. If you look in the signal column you'll see the exclamation marks in the blue colored cell. So tomorrow morning we cover the VLNC short and go long on that stock buying $5,000 worth at the opening price.

Well Geezus Man....Getit Right

Gawrd...okay, so when I went back to the last signal for the price entry I forgot to adjust the number of shares....you see, each trade begins in this adventure as a $5,000 trade...regardless of price. So for instance, since the price of cnxt when the system went short was higher, the number of shares sold short had to be reduced. All adjusted now. You just gotta be a stickler for details, eh?

Rather Than

jumping into the middle of a trend, which really doesnt make sense, I went back to the last signal change and inserted the price for that signal as the benchmark for moving forward here. Also added a few columns on the far right for tracking daily changes to the fictitous portfolio. Oh yeah, for information, the blue colored cell with !!!!! under the signal column indicates that stock has a position change that needs to be taken. In this case dcth has changed from short to long (if you could only see the backup sheet for that stock).

ps...just happened to notice that ptsc.ob has a glitch which will be fixed shortly. It should not be a buy at this point. Like I said, a work in progress.....lol

Trading Test Numero Uno

A while ago, I mentioned I was working on a tradable system for lower priced stocks, say below $10. I'd guess I'm about 80% of the way to having it complete. Below is a snapshot of what I call the summary sheet of the excel workbook. There's about 25 stocks shown (not including the dow, spx and emini). Some of you may recognize many of these stocks as they have gotten attention for various reasons on disccusion boards. I have decided to try a dry run of the system here just to see how it pans out, so I randomly picked 5 of the stocks (gss, vlnc, ftk, c and cnxt) and bought (or sold) a fictitious amount ($5,000) of each using last fridays closing price. Each was either a long or short position based on what the current signal is for that paricular stock, and this test therefore enters a trend possibly right in the middle of it, but so be it, you have to start somewhere....I ended up with 3 short positions and 2 long positions. The whole idea here is a method of trading the trends as much as possible using moving averages, either simple or exponential, tailored for each stock, as trigger points. More on this later on.

This was intended to be an end of the day piece of work so that signals are received in the evening and if a trade is indicated, it is made at opening price the following day. Sort of 'trading for the working class guy', or whatever. You get the picture.....its still a work in progress....lets see where it goes. For now, commissions and slippage is ignored.


The worksheet shown below is one of several in the excel workbook. This particular worksheet is for the stock symbol GSS. The stocks open, high, low, close and volume is brought into this worksheet by a series of macros, so that its done essentially automatically with the push of a button on the sheet shown above. As the information is brought in, it also plots that data on the chart on the right hand side and determines what the postion (buy or sell) should be for that stock on the following day. This is based upon the moving averages that were selected especially for that stocks characteristics. There is much other information on this sheet too detailed to get into right now....suffice it to say that this worksheet is the 'brains' behind the whole thing. If you have or know of a good candidate for the system let me know and maybe I can list it. Basically looking for trending or volatile stocks less than 10 bucks. I say maybe because I have no intention of turning this into pure labor...lol. One other thing of importance I guess....stops are not used...the idea is to get on the correct side of a trend (either up or down) and ride it as long as possible. And, of course, this is not trading advice...if you buy or sell based on this information you could go broke, your spouse could leave you and your house could burn down. So dont do it.

OH, AND, THIS IS EXPERIMENTAL. IF YOU DONT LIKE WHAT YOU SEE, DONT LOOK AT IT!