Where are we? Well, it appears the Oct 12 turn date was blown out of the water by this bull market as if it never existed. Or has it? Upcoming turn date is monday the 19th which is supposed to be a low.....very possible it could still happen. Since we had options expiration last week and friday was a down day, I suppose you could make the case that options expiration adjustment began friday and another down day or two would do the trick.Technically, if the ES prints below about 1,075 on monday, this downtrend would be correct, though just barely. So, can we expect the uptrend to resume on monday or even tuesday? I think the answer is yes. Lets take a look at sentiment. Below is the Tom Drake's 2cs updated through last friday.
Although sentiment is approaching the trendline, a reasonable interpretation would be that if this is the start of a bull market, sentiment has room to grow as evidenced by the behavior of this indicator in 2004 through 2006 bull market. But, maybe it is different this time.
2 comments:
I think it's worth another buy-the-dip trade here, although we're getting closer to overly bullish sentiment.
But I am still amazed as to how negative the public opinion as seen in newspapers, magazines, TV and blogs. This all but assures a new bull market at least for many more months, normal corrections nonwithstanding.
The place where we really entered a new mega bearmarket are t-bonds IMO. This seems to under the public's radar screen as well with record inflows into bond funds.
Joe
You're right on Joe. Much yet to be fulfilled on the upside here. And nobody believing or liking this advance at all. Wonderful job the boyz have done to scare everyone out of this market.
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