Weekend Update 6-25-10

Let's see what the bulls got, if anything here. Can't really say its do or die time for them quite yet, but its quickly approaching. Probably one spark of good news would do the trick, but who really knows. Myself? Watching, with caution. Good to see the markets back in synch with the tides at any rate.

Weekend Update 6-20-10

Interesting that we have a turn on the longest day of the year. And it's supposed to be a high. For the bulls, I think it may be important that this next trend get inverted from down to up. If it happens I expect it to really begin a run to the upside. If not, well we can look for more garbage.

Crossover Update 6-12-10

Below is a chart of the snp crossover technique as I see it. You can see the 1,050 downside target was met with no further downside targets indicated at this time. We will be keeping an eye on any future targets as they develop.

Hey You, Get Outta the Boat !!

why, you ask? Because I need room to load up the boat. Yup, we are heading higher, much higher and I suspect with some speed. So, monday and tuesday I'll be in a real shopping mood.....for stock that is. May even take some futures positions. Next stop spx 1,400. Evidence you might ask? First of all, I reference the larger timeframe tidal chart below. Secondly, we have an upturn tidal date coming up on tuesday. Third, Don Wolanchuk's clx material points to an upturn in stocks with his 30 day offsets looking really bullish, and last but certainly not least, of course Joanne's snp xover techniques shown below having reached the downside target of 1,050as I had called. Too many things lining up for a launch for me to remain bearish. All these techniques of looking at the markets are not the commonly used methods...and thats why I like them. You could also reference the usual and normal technical indicators that are pointing up as well, but I'll leave that to the gazillion other blogs out there to do that.



BTW, she agrees. And she is, THE authority.

Weekend Update 6-6-10

Before I head to the airport for a flight to Texas I thought I'd throw this chart out there. It appears the boys had a little fun with the investing folks last fryday....a not too uncommon happening especially on the last day of the week. I'm looking for a reversal up on Monday and an inverted tide trend next week. I expect we'll have my 1,050 snp futures target hit sometime monday (probably monday evening). We'll see. And no, I'll have nothing to do with oil leaks in the Gulf next week....its the business of building a railroad lift span bridge to Galveston that has my attention.

Reason to be Bullish

Here's the mother of all tidal charts for your perusal. If you plot the dominant cycle of the tides, as I have, you'll see the very strong tendency of the markets to follow these swings. It's hard to argue with this chart.

Oopsy...What Goes Up, Must

come down....using the xover technique indicates a current downside target of 1,050 snp futures seeing that the 1,400 target is now on hold. We'll keep an eye on it. Someday soon I want to get back to the "greening" of my home, but for now I've lightened up about 30% of my stuff....perhaps more if 1,050 is taken out.
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Weekend Update 5-28-10 - Turn at Hand?

It sure has the looks of a turn at the tide bottom date, doesnt it? If so, after a few inverted trends, we would be back on track. Some people thinking we have entered another bear market....most notably I guess is Terry Laundry. I havent been following him for very long, but his technique surely sounds convincing.

Not Looking So Good

Whenever I see the market bucking the tide trends as it is now, I get a little bit twitchy. Chart below shows two distinct tidal uptrends in a row that have been defied by ms. market. Its time to get more defensive in my view...I have taken some off the table last week, but perhaps more work is in order early next week. Hate to do it, but my gut is telling me we havent seen the end of selling quite yet. My initial guess, and its only that, is that we may see some lazy work to the upside until midway through the current downward tidal trend, following by a surpise to the downside mid week through the end of next week. In other words, been ugly, could get uglier. The only thing that really casts doubt in my mind is a general sense of newly found bearishness I sense among Joe Q Public and many of the so-called experts and gurus. When I hear fellow employees say they've taken profits, it makes me wonder if the market will just prove everyone wrong. But for now, a little caution to protect profits over the past year+ seems prudent. Be careful out there. One thing I have learned over the years is that the market simply loves to take trends to an extreme, either up or down, and right now there is no question we have entered a downtrend.

Weekend Update 5-14-10

Monday should be interesting. Important point in time for the bulls here. Now we see if the bears can take control of the markets.

Epic Fail !!

Wow...this has got to be one of, if not the biggest, tidal failures of all time. What caused it, other than the fact that the markets seemed due for a large correction? I could go on and on about possible reasons behind this large move, but you've probably heard and read a million different things already so I wont bore you with more. Just remember that from time to time these things happen...they're not pretty nor profitable (unless you were short).

So, what happens now? I think a quick recover to previous highs is pretty much out of the question. Too much damage in confidence I think for that to happen. I prefer a scenario where we bounce around for a little bit with some pretty decent volatility followed by some sideways action throughout the summer months. My guess is that it may be difficult to make money in either direction for a bit...perhaps the nimble trader who can get in and out can profit, but its all pure speculation on my part. The market Gods will speak soon enough. Be careful out there.

Weekend Update 5-1-10

Well now...things got a little bit more interesting around this latest tide turn date. Volatility appears to be returning to the market, of course you have to keep a fridays action in perspective because they can be wild and crazy trading days. It will be interesting to see if this volatility marks a top in the markets (sell in May, go away) or whether they are just shaking the trees trying to get more investors out of the markets before a spring and summer run up. I guess I'd have to vote for the latter. As always, time will tell.

Mid Week Chart 4-27-10

I'll leave to you to draw your own conclusions.....

Weekend Update 4-17-10

Certainly had a dump down yesterday into the tide low date. Now we see if it is the low of the move for next week. Sentiment seems to be a little on the frothy side, but not unusually high for all the movement we've seen in the upward direction. My target of 1,200 which was stated about a year ago, and laughed at on one other board in particular, has finally be hit. I love it when a plan comes together....lol. Now we see if the 1,400 area gets hit as well in the months ahead. Here's a look at the snp crossover again...thanks to the work of Joanne over at Wollieworld.

Mid Week Chart 4-13-10

DONT FORGET TO DO YOUR TAXES !!

Just finished mine finally and submitted....relief.

2CS and SnP Crossover

It's been awhile since I posted these....first Tom Drake's 2cs indicator of sentiment. You can see it is hovering above the logarithmic trendline, much like it did from 2004 through 2007. We shall see if the markets continue to react in the same fashion as they did then.



Following chart is the snp crossover technique, as I draw it, from Joanne at Wollie World. It still indicates unfilled targets above the market. Time will tell.

Weekend Update 4-3-10

As Joe mentioned below, we do look to be coming off a low here. Approaching 1,200....that target has been out there for a seemingly long, long time. I believe its destiny. :) Anyway, happy Easter to everyone!

Mid Week Update 3-24-10

Weekend Update 3-21-10

Well, finally got back from vacation...need another week to recover from it, lol. Not much to report yet at this point. First day of spring though!

Time Off

I know things have been slow, well they're about to get slower. :) I'll be sprawled out on a Carribean beach or sipping a Pina for the next week...though I will be thinking of you all. :-) We usually do it once a year, and really looking forward to this year. Good luck next week, trade well!