Above is a chart of where we are on the snp ES as of about 5:35 pm, tuesday 10-6-09, the day after my birthday. :) Clearly the tidal low expected for today actually came in late last week. There seems to be a tendency for a turn date to occur one or two days early in the direction of the predominant trend. In other words, in this bull market, the low and turn upward seems to come in earlier than expected, as if the market can hardly wait to resume it's upward march in a bull market. I will have to check to see if this the opposite occurs in a bear market......In any event, monday the 12th is the next high point of this rally according to the tides. .
Now, back to trading. Last weekend I posted a chart based on trading the tides with a 50% entry and exit. Just for giggles, below is a chart of nirvana trading where the basis is that a trader would get the absolute best prices available on the turn dates. Obviously this is not possible, but I post the chart just to frame the boundaries between what should be bad trading (the previous 50% chart) and what is impossible to do (the 100% chart). Now the limits are set and this weekend I'll put up some charts of equity growth based on what we might theoretically expect a trader, only slightly smarter and more experienced than that caveman mentioned earlier, ought to be able to do. Keep in mind this is based on trading a single ES contract and getting the impossible best prices for entry and exits. Also no consideration for drawdowns is included here.
2 comments:
Larry,
Thanks soi much for your tidal postings. What is short-term trading always messing up for me are bad entries. I seem to do well with longer-term trading based upon identifying the underlying trend. Then bad entries do not matter so much. However, if your trade is 5 days or so on average... That's why I'm really looking forward to your findings. Would you look at things like the first hour of a trading day is always bearish or overnight the most bullish??? Can't wait to see the posting.
Joe
Joe,
Dont know that any time of the day is particularly bulish or bearish, other than in a bull market they seem to like to take it up into the close and probably just the opposite in a bear. I would RSI or MACD's would be helpful in trying to get better entrys. Would be interested to hear what others might have for ideas on this.
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