A while back I posted a tidal chart wondering if the possibility of a spando thrust was underway in the snp. Taking another look at the chart today, we see that price has broken above and outside of the narrower trend range and is currently parked up above the upper trend line. In addition to that, yesterday (friday the 18th) was in fact a tidal low date. Does that mean that we are heading back up again next week to satisfy that criteria? We are several days past a new moon and consequently the forces of gravity from the moon are weakening each day. Keep in mind, the hypothesis from Taylor is that decreasing gravity results in higher market prices and increasing gravity in lower prices. Time will tell.
Our last tide trend we have to qualify as a bad trend. In other words the white line on the chart (indicating incorrect trend) "should have" terminated in a price lower than the beginning of the trend because it was supposed to be a down trend. But, bullish forces being as they are right now, did not allow that to happen. Generally, the trends are 75% to 80% correct as indicated by the tides.
3 comments:
Hi,
Thanks a lot for your dissections of the tidal influence on the markets. I find them very fascinating and a good basis for market trading. IMO the best way to exploit the tides here is to identify the longer-term trend and then take only the tidal trades in the trend direction. When the markets crashed into the March lows, we should have only taken the short trades and ever since then only the longs. The difficult and critical part is to identify those major turning points. Here I think the 2CS, Chris Carolan's Spiral Calendar turn dates and EW are most helpful. As always, there is no guarantee and we will always have losers. What counts is the sum of all trades.
The thing I like about these more esoteric indicators is that they will work IMO no matter what. Many other systems/indicators work for a while, but then cease to. For example, for many decades the market was trend following. Then it started to become more mean reversing. That meant a lot of trading systems went belly up. I do not want to fear that to happen to me.
Joe
Joe,
Especially in strongly trending markets, like what we have now, it seems that trading only those tide trends in the direction of the market, like you say, makes sense.
In a trendless market, trading both directions looks to work really well. The other thing I noticed is that in strong trending markets, the tide trend against the main trend can be very unpredicatable...iow, it can make the proper correction, but oftentimes in a very short reactionary move, not spread out over the duration of the whole trend.
Larry,
I think we've just seen what you mentioned - if I get it right:
1. There was a tidal turn Friday/Saturday
2. The market moved up into the turn date and then had a short counter-move.
3. The uptrend seems to have resumed since then.
The tidal turn dates seem to introduce an element of instability and volatility regardless whether considered a tidal low or high. After this short counter-move the trend resumes. Definitively worth attention.
Joe
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