Not Looking So Good

Whenever I see the market bucking the tide trends as it is now, I get a little bit twitchy. Chart below shows two distinct tidal uptrends in a row that have been defied by ms. market. Its time to get more defensive in my view...I have taken some off the table last week, but perhaps more work is in order early next week. Hate to do it, but my gut is telling me we havent seen the end of selling quite yet. My initial guess, and its only that, is that we may see some lazy work to the upside until midway through the current downward tidal trend, following by a surpise to the downside mid week through the end of next week. In other words, been ugly, could get uglier. The only thing that really casts doubt in my mind is a general sense of newly found bearishness I sense among Joe Q Public and many of the so-called experts and gurus. When I hear fellow employees say they've taken profits, it makes me wonder if the market will just prove everyone wrong. But for now, a little caution to protect profits over the past year+ seems prudent. Be careful out there. One thing I have learned over the years is that the market simply loves to take trends to an extreme, either up or down, and right now there is no question we have entered a downtrend.

Weekend Update 5-14-10

Monday should be interesting. Important point in time for the bulls here. Now we see if the bears can take control of the markets.

Epic Fail !!

Wow...this has got to be one of, if not the biggest, tidal failures of all time. What caused it, other than the fact that the markets seemed due for a large correction? I could go on and on about possible reasons behind this large move, but you've probably heard and read a million different things already so I wont bore you with more. Just remember that from time to time these things happen...they're not pretty nor profitable (unless you were short).

So, what happens now? I think a quick recover to previous highs is pretty much out of the question. Too much damage in confidence I think for that to happen. I prefer a scenario where we bounce around for a little bit with some pretty decent volatility followed by some sideways action throughout the summer months. My guess is that it may be difficult to make money in either direction for a bit...perhaps the nimble trader who can get in and out can profit, but its all pure speculation on my part. The market Gods will speak soon enough. Be careful out there.

Weekend Update 5-1-10

Well now...things got a little bit more interesting around this latest tide turn date. Volatility appears to be returning to the market, of course you have to keep a fridays action in perspective because they can be wild and crazy trading days. It will be interesting to see if this volatility marks a top in the markets (sell in May, go away) or whether they are just shaking the trees trying to get more investors out of the markets before a spring and summer run up. I guess I'd have to vote for the latter. As always, time will tell.

Mid Week Chart 4-27-10

I'll leave to you to draw your own conclusions.....

Weekend Update 4-17-10

Certainly had a dump down yesterday into the tide low date. Now we see if it is the low of the move for next week. Sentiment seems to be a little on the frothy side, but not unusually high for all the movement we've seen in the upward direction. My target of 1,200 which was stated about a year ago, and laughed at on one other board in particular, has finally be hit. I love it when a plan comes together....lol. Now we see if the 1,400 area gets hit as well in the months ahead. Here's a look at the snp crossover again...thanks to the work of Joanne over at Wollieworld.

Mid Week Chart 4-13-10

DONT FORGET TO DO YOUR TAXES !!

Just finished mine finally and submitted....relief.

2CS and SnP Crossover

It's been awhile since I posted these....first Tom Drake's 2cs indicator of sentiment. You can see it is hovering above the logarithmic trendline, much like it did from 2004 through 2007. We shall see if the markets continue to react in the same fashion as they did then.



Following chart is the snp crossover technique, as I draw it, from Joanne at Wollie World. It still indicates unfilled targets above the market. Time will tell.

Weekend Update 4-3-10

As Joe mentioned below, we do look to be coming off a low here. Approaching 1,200....that target has been out there for a seemingly long, long time. I believe its destiny. :) Anyway, happy Easter to everyone!

Mid Week Update 3-24-10

Weekend Update 3-21-10

Well, finally got back from vacation...need another week to recover from it, lol. Not much to report yet at this point. First day of spring though!

Time Off

I know things have been slow, well they're about to get slower. :) I'll be sprawled out on a Carribean beach or sipping a Pina for the next week...though I will be thinking of you all. :-) We usually do it once a year, and really looking forward to this year. Good luck next week, trade well!

Weekend Update 3-6-10

I'd like to be doing more on this site, but have been busy with other things as spring approaches. Anyway, here is this weekend's update with the expected rise coming into a turning point on tuesday. Maybe I'll get a chance to update Tom Drakes 2cs this weekend so we can all see where we sit with his sentiment indicator. Keep in mind, there are still some unreached goals in the 1,200's that by any stretch seem unlikely to be tagged, but the market has a way of making the unrealistic...reality.

My daughter has requested a tumbling composter of her own....which is not a big deal, but shipping it from Maine to California sure is. Anyone want to make the delivery? lol....It must be 30 or 40 bucks just to move it that far, just a guess. But, thats what daughters do....(make unreasonable demands on dad!) I'll be heading to the island of Culebra the week after next, so maybe before we head out I can get it built and shipped.

Weekend Update 2-27-2010

As February comes to a close, we are looking at a low on monday, March 1st then up into March 9th or 10th....too close to call the difference. I'm positioned for a quick down on monday and then a recovery....we'll see what happens.

On the green front, things have been a little slow. I finally got cleaned up (tools,etc) from the solar project.....the compost tumbler is in test mode now but cold climates and composting dont mix well. Project "hydro" is now on the back burner after some disappointing flow observations. I felt I had enough water to make it a go, but upon additional observations, that is in doubt. Two other projects are being contemplated once spring breaks....more on those later. Thinking about spring and how many hedges I now have to take care of, I have a bid in on a gas powered hedge trimmer at ebay.....we'll see how it goes. :)

Weekend Update 2-20-2010

Tides say we have a turn monday and this seems to jive with da cheif's clx data. Not much to report....markets seems sleepy to me, but I've been busy on other things so maybe it just seems that way to me. I would not be at all surpised to see an extended uptrend begin here into the May timeframe.

Weekend Update

Better late than never....busy, busy weekend and havent gotten the time to put up a chart. Sort of sloppy in here and difficult to decipher patterns, trends and tops and bottoms. My guess tonight is that we may see the low during Sunday evening trading and have an up opening.

Brrrrrrrrrrrr....it's chilly

Chilly outside and chilly in the markets right here. Hard to figure how current action is fitting into the tide picture, unless we get a huge move up on monday to make the trend correct, but then we have to follow that with another swoop for the downtrend ahead of us. Dont really see that happening. So instead, it's looking more like an inversion again in this trend, then we see.

Many are thinking last fridays reversal market a low....I'm not convinced yet. Lets see what sunday night futures have in store first.

Don't Like It

No I dont like the way the markets acting in here. It just looks sluggish and spent to me. So, unless things change, I plan to take a third off the long side table this friday as a precaution. I can always get back in if I see strength. But I also have other indications that we might be rolling over in front of something more substantial on the downside. Though some targets of mine havent been hit yet, there's no guarantee they will and this run since last March has been very to good to us. So why get piggish in here? Of course I might see things entirely different tomorrow......its my perogative.

Pig Pile !!!!!!

Sure looks like it, doesnt it? Remember playing that as a kid? Amazing more people werent just squished to death...lol.

Anyway, for whatever reasons, the bears are piling on during this swoop down, expecting more weakness to follow. They could get it right this time....or maybe not. :) There should be, by now, a pretty good sized boatload of 'em short as all hell....no reason for the boys not to take them to the cleaners. Keep in mind, I still have unreached targets above the 1,200 zone and I believe we see this done before long.

In the world of greenage, project #3, the compost tumbler, is coming along just fine. Actually I am building two, the prototype, which I will give to my sister-in-law Jane, and one for ourselves. In fact, I am about to head out the door now to deliver her compost maker....she's into that sort of thing, so she should appreciate it....especially since its free, better built than anything you can buy, and delivered to your door fully assembled !! (I must admit, I am just the greatest brother in law anyone could have. :-)

Mid Week Update

Just a chart today, without words.