2CS and SnP Crossover

It's been awhile since I posted these....first Tom Drake's 2cs indicator of sentiment. You can see it is hovering above the logarithmic trendline, much like it did from 2004 through 2007. We shall see if the markets continue to react in the same fashion as they did then.



Following chart is the snp crossover technique, as I draw it, from Joanne at Wollie World. It still indicates unfilled targets above the market. Time will tell.

Weekend Update 4-3-10

As Joe mentioned below, we do look to be coming off a low here. Approaching 1,200....that target has been out there for a seemingly long, long time. I believe its destiny. :) Anyway, happy Easter to everyone!

Mid Week Update 3-24-10

Weekend Update 3-21-10

Well, finally got back from vacation...need another week to recover from it, lol. Not much to report yet at this point. First day of spring though!

Time Off

I know things have been slow, well they're about to get slower. :) I'll be sprawled out on a Carribean beach or sipping a Pina for the next week...though I will be thinking of you all. :-) We usually do it once a year, and really looking forward to this year. Good luck next week, trade well!

Weekend Update 3-6-10

I'd like to be doing more on this site, but have been busy with other things as spring approaches. Anyway, here is this weekend's update with the expected rise coming into a turning point on tuesday. Maybe I'll get a chance to update Tom Drakes 2cs this weekend so we can all see where we sit with his sentiment indicator. Keep in mind, there are still some unreached goals in the 1,200's that by any stretch seem unlikely to be tagged, but the market has a way of making the unrealistic...reality.

My daughter has requested a tumbling composter of her own....which is not a big deal, but shipping it from Maine to California sure is. Anyone want to make the delivery? lol....It must be 30 or 40 bucks just to move it that far, just a guess. But, thats what daughters do....(make unreasonable demands on dad!) I'll be heading to the island of Culebra the week after next, so maybe before we head out I can get it built and shipped.

Weekend Update 2-27-2010

As February comes to a close, we are looking at a low on monday, March 1st then up into March 9th or 10th....too close to call the difference. I'm positioned for a quick down on monday and then a recovery....we'll see what happens.

On the green front, things have been a little slow. I finally got cleaned up (tools,etc) from the solar project.....the compost tumbler is in test mode now but cold climates and composting dont mix well. Project "hydro" is now on the back burner after some disappointing flow observations. I felt I had enough water to make it a go, but upon additional observations, that is in doubt. Two other projects are being contemplated once spring breaks....more on those later. Thinking about spring and how many hedges I now have to take care of, I have a bid in on a gas powered hedge trimmer at ebay.....we'll see how it goes. :)

Weekend Update 2-20-2010

Tides say we have a turn monday and this seems to jive with da cheif's clx data. Not much to report....markets seems sleepy to me, but I've been busy on other things so maybe it just seems that way to me. I would not be at all surpised to see an extended uptrend begin here into the May timeframe.

Weekend Update

Better late than never....busy, busy weekend and havent gotten the time to put up a chart. Sort of sloppy in here and difficult to decipher patterns, trends and tops and bottoms. My guess tonight is that we may see the low during Sunday evening trading and have an up opening.

Brrrrrrrrrrrr....it's chilly

Chilly outside and chilly in the markets right here. Hard to figure how current action is fitting into the tide picture, unless we get a huge move up on monday to make the trend correct, but then we have to follow that with another swoop for the downtrend ahead of us. Dont really see that happening. So instead, it's looking more like an inversion again in this trend, then we see.

Many are thinking last fridays reversal market a low....I'm not convinced yet. Lets see what sunday night futures have in store first.

Don't Like It

No I dont like the way the markets acting in here. It just looks sluggish and spent to me. So, unless things change, I plan to take a third off the long side table this friday as a precaution. I can always get back in if I see strength. But I also have other indications that we might be rolling over in front of something more substantial on the downside. Though some targets of mine havent been hit yet, there's no guarantee they will and this run since last March has been very to good to us. So why get piggish in here? Of course I might see things entirely different tomorrow......its my perogative.

Pig Pile !!!!!!

Sure looks like it, doesnt it? Remember playing that as a kid? Amazing more people werent just squished to death...lol.

Anyway, for whatever reasons, the bears are piling on during this swoop down, expecting more weakness to follow. They could get it right this time....or maybe not. :) There should be, by now, a pretty good sized boatload of 'em short as all hell....no reason for the boys not to take them to the cleaners. Keep in mind, I still have unreached targets above the 1,200 zone and I believe we see this done before long.

In the world of greenage, project #3, the compost tumbler, is coming along just fine. Actually I am building two, the prototype, which I will give to my sister-in-law Jane, and one for ourselves. In fact, I am about to head out the door now to deliver her compost maker....she's into that sort of thing, so she should appreciate it....especially since its free, better built than anything you can buy, and delivered to your door fully assembled !! (I must admit, I am just the greatest brother in law anyone could have. :-)

Mid Week Update

Just a chart today, without words.

DIY (Do It Yourself) Project #3

The markets are just too damn depressing. First there's drops, and droops, and now there's looming taxes.

Let's build something ! Green project #3 (since the hydro job is on hold pending further data gathering), will be the construction of a build-it-yourself compost tumbler. Those of you who have vegetable or flower gardens should appreciate this. Compost is to gardens as blood is to animals. It truly is the lifeblood of plants.

So, the idea is to build a large enough bin to store the compostable material (table vegetable scraps, lawn clippings, leaves, etc, etc, etc, etc) We dont want something we have to pitchfork every friggin weekend and bust your balls just to get it to work. So here's what we do. Go out and get yourself a 55 or 65 gallon plastic drum with a removeable top. See picture below (how about that snow, huh?). I bought two of these beauties from Bob the Barrel Man (seriously) here locally for $25 each. These are rugged plastic barrels which were used to store and ship hot peppers from Peru to their destination I believe somewhere in Connecticut. They have a nice black cover that easily unscrews for simply filling and emptying of the barrels. Very nice. More later on how we put the whole package together.

On a seperate note, my digital camera seems to be on the fritz. Although pushing 10 years old, it seems to washing out pictures with too much light at times. As if the shutter is staying open a tad longer than it should. Maybe a little oil is needed !! :)

Pop Goes the Weasel

Ha, ha, ha... I dont really think it will be that easy, do you? Who knows, maybe thats the way the boys in control wanted this run to end.

I still have unreached targets above the market in the 1,200 zone and dont forget that Tom Drakes 2cs seems to be pointing towards sentiment behavior right now more characteristic of a bull market as opposed to a bear market rally. And then there's the elliot wave....I repeat, and then there's the elliot wave....which tells us absolutely nothing because all previous E-wave guesses have been wrong, no two people can agree on a count and its all useless drivel to begin with anyway. So forget about paying any attention to anyone claiming to have the guru answers through elliot wave. Aint gonna happen unless its purely by luck. The whole thing about a stopped clock being right twice a day really does apply to these people.

So, where do I stand from a tidal perspective? Mid february I have been saying all along we will have a meaningful correction. I'll hopefully post the substantiating chart next weekend. Until then, hang on through these pre-prepatory major correction convulsions....it doesnt reverse on a dime, right ?

Weekend Update 1-17-10

Halfway through January already. How time flys. Somewhere I read: "life is like a roll of toilet paper, the closer you get to the roll, the faster it goes". Aint that the truth.

Well, below is the weekend shot at the eminis and tides. If you believe it, and sometimes its hard I admit, we are looking at a tidal bottom last friday. Could it be we've seen the low down below 1130 on friday already? As always, time will tell.

Hydro Project 2 may be shelved for the time being. I did a flow check yesterday and it was not encouraging. Apparently we seem to be drying up for some unknown reason and I would not like to have water flow shutoff by mother nature and have the system just go on vacation for months. So, more study is needed....in the meantime, I'll be posting some calcs to determine possible energy production based on some assumptions going forward. As you might know, the really nice thing about small hydro is that, given adequate constant flow, it runs 24-7 and does not shut down when the sun doesnt shine or wind doesnt blow....but, you gotta have water.

Tides Flow, So Does Water Downhill

As bad as this doodling is that I threw together today, it sort of gives the idea in a very cartoonish, amateurish way. Anyway, here's a terrific site a friend who was (now retired) actually manager of a very large hydro station sent to me. Good stuff for anyone wanting to know state by state what is out there for assistance on many levels.

http://www.dsireusa.org/



Tom Drake's comment below reminded me to post his 2cs chart. Looks to be at a potentially interesting point here.

Tides Rock !

Like following the bouncing ball. Its as simple as that. Yes, anyone can make a pittance of money in this market on the short side .....if he pays attention, and watches the tides. So I did it and scalped handsomely on the short side as a novelty today....just to prove it can be done. But, its a bull market, so dont try making a living on the short side here....not good for your health or welfare.

Yeah I know....not nearly as interesting as building solar panels or even close to building a hydroelectric station in your backyard.......but the title of this blog is, afterall, tides-trends-trading......not green power, unite! So, I guess, as long as there is interest by many on receiving the keys to the markets, I'll keep unlocking the door.....at least until I either grow bored or no one shows interest anymore.

Project Two - Low Flow, Low Head Hydro

Okay, project number 2. Quite a bit more ambitious than the solar project. Here's the plan....I have a small drainage channel that runs around the back of my propery, and it appears that it runs all year long. The flow is small, I estimate maybe only a 1/2 cubic foot per second right now (winter) and am not sure what it would flow in the spring, summer or fall.

So, I take that water and convey it to the area that is called "entrance to pond" area. The conveyance structure, since the flow is low, would probably be an open wood box kept level and supported on legs...about 100' long. The water would be brought to the pond entrance area and dumped onto an overshot water wheel to turn a shaft that would then be taken through a speed increaser and finally to a simple generator or alternator to produce power.

That's it in a nutshell.....cost? I have no idea right now, but part of the cost will be securing the land rights to build the waterwheel and operate it. I probably would need to buy the land on which just the pond is situated. Added benefits? In the winter I can turn the powerhouse into a warming hut and use the pond for a skating rink. Imagine how much fun we could have with the grandkids there as they grow up over the years. Okay, here's some snowy pictures....wish I could show more, but I think this will give you the idea.


Entrance to the pond below.



Entrance to the pond again.




Entrance to pond looking toward pond from our house.



Another view of entrance to pond



Note rock wall along right side of picture. At the upper end of the rock wall is where the water would be picked up and then conveyed down to the pond.



Middle of rock wall straight ahead, note pond on right side of picture



Standing on back deck, pond straight ahead.

Closing in on Solar One

For any who have interest in my solar project, below is an excellent link that I used almost exclusively:

www.diypvsolarenergy.com/basic-solar-panel-design/

With few exceptions, I followed this site in the construction of my panel. I havent put a lot of notes next to my pictures....I really didnt have any intention of making this site a do-it-yourself tutorial for building solar panels. Just some pictures of my project to show that anyone can do it....lol. Cost?

5/8" Exterior Plywood $3.84 Lowes
.08x4'x2' Plexiglass $19.37 Lowes
Pegboard $3.39 Lowes
37 each 3"x6" Solar Cells - Kit $55.30 Free Sun Power
Galv. Screws $5.00 Lowes
Silicone Caulk approx. $1.00
Paint Free
12 Gauge Wire Free
Project Box approx. $3.00 Radio Shack
Wire Terminals $3.86 Radio Shack

Plywood, pegboard and caulking compound pro-rated costs.
--------------------------------------
total $94.76

So there you have it. $100 for what should be approximately a 60 watt solar panel. As you can see in the pictures below, outdoors I am measuring over 20 volts in bright sun. But, I must be doing something wrong in my attempt to measure amperage, because the multi-meter is not registering anything. Perhaps I need to run this to ground to get a reading?





Over 16 volts inside the house.





Drilling the plexiglass for the attachment screws.









The "project box" from Radio Shack in place on the back of the panel. I guess project box is nothing more than a fancy word for junction box.






Over 18 volts even in the shade.