Tides, Trends and Trading

Weekend Update 10-10-10

2010-10-10T07:45:00.003-04:00

Below are the tide charts and spx projection for this week. I cant say either is too impressively on track right now...lol

Due to some family health issues and other things, I think this post will very likely be my last unfortuneately. Just so many things in the fire and my interest level has been waning the last several months. Maybe this winter when things are slow I'll find the fire to take on some new project that will catch my interest. In the meantime, I'll continue on with my trading experiment off the board and possibly report results at at the end of each month or something....whether I find the time to get more tidal data in a useable form, I dont know. As it stands now, I pretty much would have a lot of data to "mine" to get past Jan 2011. Chow for now and trade well!

Weekend Update 10-1-10

2010-10-02T07:16:00.003-04:00

Starting out with the spx projection this week. According to this, next week doesnt look pretty from a bull's perspective, but these things have been known to invert which would not surprise me in the least.

Below is the trading test results. Last week proved to be more in line with expectations. For a $25,000 portfolio, I would hope one could see an average daily return of about $50. Nice pocket change, but key to it all would be consistency which hopefully will be proven over time.

Note that I have made a few adjustments to some of the stock signals. These are actually improvements to performance....one of which was a quicker trigger on cnxt using a short sma crossover of a slower ema. The change put cnxt into a buy mode on9/21 at $1.48. Because this system is still in test mode and I want to find the "best" fit for all stocks, these kind of changes will happen for the first couple of months I would assume. All for the betterment and performance improvement. Stocks to watch on the long side moving forward here I think will be cnxt, gfre, nxwi, mmrf. Also note that I have added a cash line on row 33. Basically this is the result of reversing from short to long on cnxt, and in real time, real life this would represent spendable gains on the account. Keep in mind that we are always invested $5,000 on each stock, so gains have to go somewhere...right into a pocket. :)

My original concept here, in case you forgot, was to take a small, fixed amount of retirement cash ($25,000) and keep it invested in a somewhat aggressive mode. Still a few years away from hanging up the slide rule, I want to test a method of doing just this. Take some pressure off the retirement account and make "frivolous" expenditures in retirement an easier decision to make.

If you're nervous right now and looking down, here's some potential stocks out of this list that have had good runups and might be due for a correction (after the signal is received of course): TQNT, EXAS, KMKCF.OB Again, dont jump in, wait for the signal.

And, of course, the weekly tide chart. No words needed here. :)

Weekend Update 9-24-10

2010-09-24T18:57:00.003-04:00

As I type this morning, its a little more difficult than usual. I heard last night that my little sister has been diagnosed with breast cancer, and will require an all out blitz of the full treatment to kill this thing. My wife, and I by association, have been through all that process in the past when she had rectal cancer, so we know what it will be like for her. Its no picnic, but she will have an incredible amount of support from family and friends, and she will get through it. She is a tiger in every sense of the word but also one of the kindest persons you will find anywhere. She will do anything for you at the drop of a hat. Hang in there sis, you will be in our thoughts often in the coming months. Two words in summary....Cancer Sucks.

Tide chart below, as you well know by now. Supposedly a low yesterday. Interesting how the market masquerades itself.

The market kind of found us this week, then made a statement on friday to the effect, no one can predict my next trick, watch this !

And the trading adventure. Another blah, blah week....part of the reason to remain patient and let these stocks play out. History tells me the results will be much better than has been experienced in the last 2 weeks. Wait, wait.

Come to Papa

2010-09-17T18:39:00.003-04:00

I always said, let the market come to you. :) At least it seems to be coming to this projection model for the time being. Lets run it out till the end of September and see how it does.

Tide chart below. No commentary needed. Expect some weakness ahead, but nothing extraordinary.

And lastly, but certainly not least, the trading test results for the past week. Certainly not a big week with a $22 gain, but thats to be expected at times. I changed the daily percent change formula a little bit so that it showed change from the prior days close, not from the current days open. Stocks do gap, as we all know. I also added in the upper right, a formula for estimated annual dollar gain from the portfolio and annual percent gain. Now, its important to note that these gains are not including commissions (which should be very minor with this trend following method) or slippage. I expect to add in this feature shortly, but for now, its only an estimate of future results so we wont quibble about smaller dollars. Also important to realize that this projection will vary wildly in the beginning because the basis for it is a very small sample of results (only about 2 weeks at this point) so its accuracy is surely suspect now. It'll get better as time goes by. No position changes in the test portfolio were called for this week. I will post position change requirements as they happen during the week. Have a good weekend, y'all.

Some of The Inner Workings

2010-09-13T20:48:00.006-04:00

Let's take a look at the program behind all this. Columns B through G obviously hold the days action....change,open, high, low, close and volume. Standard stuff. This information is brought into the excel workbook by a web query that is run from a macro developed by: excelhero.com Its a rather complex macro that the writer allows anyone to use as long as his copyright material in the macro itself is not removed. Easy enough, and for all the work and talent he put into that macro, he deserves all the recognition he can get...believe me.

So, one can either enable or disable the worksheet to go out to yahoo and retrieve data. In fact, these 5 columns of data (COHLCV) are just the tip of the iceberg as to what can be retrieved automatically and dumped onto the sheet, due to the beauty of this macro. And, you can setup the worksheet to refresh information at any minute interval you want. So, at work I just have this worksheet running in the background (minimized) and refreshing every 5 minutes or so and I can immediately check on my entire portfolio by maximizing the window in a flash. Very nice and handy.

So, in summary, columns B through G are changing automatically as the information is refreshed which in turn is dependant upon the number minutes between refresh intervals. Column A is a listing of the stock symbols that are hyperlinked to the actual backup worksheets. By hyperlinked, I mean when you click on the symbol, the backup worksheet is automatically opened, allowing you to look at the details of that stock symbol in more detail. No need to go hunting for the worksheet tab at the bottom....just click and go.

Thats it for now...much more on the flexibility of this workbook at a later time.

Why the Trading Test?

2010-09-12T12:40:00.006-04:00

Thats a good question you might ask. Its like this. In a few years, I expect to be "retiring" such that I wont be spending each day at a desk job. I've got a nice little nest egg salted away for that time, but the thought occurs to me that a pretty good and dependable bit of extra income would surely help with the peace of mind. Knowing that I can pocket $10,000 up to $25,000 a year with a trading account would be nice for a little extra spending money that I wouldnt have to use the nest egg for. The fear, of course, is that a trading account can get wacked pretty hard during a quick crash as we've seen in the recent past.

So my thought is to try to protect against, or hedge, by having nearly half the account always invested on the short side with stocks that are in downtrends anyway. Ideally both the long side and short side investiments are complimenting each other as their trends play out. I know there are tactical problems to making this work and I havent thought through all the likely hurdles yet. But, as I say, its a work in progress and I expect to get to where I want to be eventually. I have anywhere from 2 to 4 years to work the bugs out...so time is on my side. On the whole, I think I've experienced pretty much the entire gamut of investing quirks....I've seen some of my buy and hold stuff get slaughtered, I've managed to trade away profits by being overactive in the markets, I've seen nice profits vanish or turn into losses and I've watched long trade losses grow and grow hoping things will turn around. After all this, my experiences tell me that you have to be patient but...most importantly, when things go your way and then turn around, you must take profits and walk away to look elsewhere or simply reverse the position and look to make gains in the other direction. The markets give...they also are more than happy to take that away, and then some. In the words of Don Wolanchuk, "think like a criminal".

and furthermore...it strikes me that there are a lot of folks in or close to my position ....a lot of people appraoaching that point in their lives when its time to think seriously about what comes next. In my honest opinion, its not gonna be bad, all we have to do is be smart and navigate our way through it. In the meantime, take the time to pay attention to the things that are important in life...you know what I'm talking about.

Trading Test Update 9-11-10

2010-09-11T19:19:00.003-04:00

Not much happening in the portfolio of randomly picked stocks this week. As I said, the system called to go long on VLNC which was done on the open on 9-9-10 buying 5,747 shares at .96 or roughly $5,000 worth. We are now long 3 stocks and short 2. EXAS had a great week and has been on a tear since mid July vaulting from 3.31 to yesterdays close of 5.55. One to keep an eye on.

Weekend Update 9-11-10

2010-09-11T07:29:00.004-04:00

Below are the tide chart and spx projection through the end of the month. I'm on a short schedule this morning so gotta run. Family reunion type stuff. I'll post some trading modely results on sunday.

Looking A Little Deeper

2010-09-08T18:33:00.003-04:00

at VLNC...below is the backup sheet for "V". Just by the narrowest of margins, the stock was signaled as a buy, based almost entirely on the boost from yesterdays burst up. Does not matter how narrow or weak the signal is, the trade has got to be taken. It could end up as a whipsaw, but thats part of the whole process. You take some lumps on the whipsaws to guarantee you are on the right side of the trade when the trend begins. Taking a closer look at VLNC and how it has acted within the sytem:

In 1225 days of trading the system has called for 25 trades, about 50% winners and 50% losers. VLNC has not been a particulary great stock to trade within the past 4 or 5 years. However, having said that, a great breakout of this stock would give us a very nice return. Average number of days between trades has been about 49 days. A great example of a trending stock (in this case downward) has been CNXT. Thats the kind of return for each of these stocks that we want to see. Patience is key.

Trading Test Update 9-8-10

2010-09-08T18:11:00.004-04:00

We had a trade signal change tonight on VLNC. Signal change is from short to long based on the stocks surge yesterday. If you look in the signal column you'll see the exclamation marks in the blue colored cell. So tomorrow morning we cover the VLNC short and go long on that stock buying $5,000 worth at the opening price.

Well Geezus Man....Getit Right

2010-09-06T16:23:00.002-04:00

Gawrd...okay, so when I went back to the last signal for the price entry I forgot to adjust the number of shares....you see, each trade begins in this adventure as a $5,000 trade...regardless of price. So for instance, since the price of cnxt when the system went short was higher, the number of shares sold short had to be reduced. All adjusted now. You just gotta be a stickler for details, eh?

Rather Than

2010-09-06T12:34:00.004-04:00

jumping into the middle of a trend, which really doesnt make sense, I went back to the last signal change and inserted the price for that signal as the benchmark for moving forward here. Also added a few columns on the far right for tracking daily changes to the fictitous portfolio. Oh yeah, for information, the blue colored cell with !!!!! under the signal column indicates that stock has a position change that needs to be taken. In this case dcth has changed from short to long (if you could only see the backup sheet for that stock).

ps...just happened to notice that ptsc.ob has a glitch which will be fixed shortly. It should not be a buy at this point. Like I said, a work in progress.....lol

Trading Test Numero Uno

2010-09-05T23:33:00.006-04:00

A while ago, I mentioned I was working on a tradable system for lower priced stocks, say below $10. I'd guess I'm about 80% of the way to having it complete. Below is a snapshot of what I call the summary sheet of the excel workbook. There's about 25 stocks shown (not including the dow, spx and emini). Some of you may recognize many of these stocks as they have gotten attention for various reasons on disccusion boards. I have decided to try a dry run of the system here just to see how it pans out, so I randomly picked 5 of the stocks (gss, vlnc, ftk, c and cnxt) and bought (or sold) a fictitious amount ($5,000) of each using last fridays closing price. Each was either a long or short position based on what the current signal is for that paricular stock, and this test therefore enters a trend possibly right in the middle of it, but so be it, you have to start somewhere....I ended up with 3 short positions and 2 long positions. The whole idea here is a method of trading the trends as much as possible using moving averages, either simple or exponential, tailored for each stock, as trigger points. More on this later on.

This was intended to be an end of the day piece of work so that signals are received in the evening and if a trade is indicated, it is made at opening price the following day. Sort of 'trading for the working class guy', or whatever. You get the picture.....its still a work in progress....lets see where it goes. For now, commissions and slippage is ignored.

The worksheet shown below is one of several in the excel workbook. This particular worksheet is for the stock symbol GSS. The stocks open, high, low, close and volume is brought into this worksheet by a series of macros, so that its done essentially automatically with the push of a button on the sheet shown above. As the information is brought in, it also plots that data on the chart on the right hand side and determines what the postion (buy or sell) should be for that stock on the following day. This is based upon the moving averages that were selected especially for that stocks characteristics. There is much other information on this sheet too detailed to get into right now....suffice it to say that this worksheet is the 'brains' behind the whole thing. If you have or know of a good candidate for the system let me know and maybe I can list it. Basically looking for trending or volatile stocks less than 10 bucks. I say maybe because I have no intention of turning this into pure labor...lol. One other thing of importance I guess....stops are not used...the idea is to get on the correct side of a trend (either up or down) and ride it as long as possible. And, of course, this is not trading advice...if you buy or sell based on this information you could go broke, your spouse could leave you and your house could burn down. So dont do it.

OH, AND, THIS IS EXPERIMENTAL. IF YOU DONT LIKE WHAT YOU SEE, DONT LOOK AT IT!

Weekend Update 9-3-10

2010-09-03T18:00:00.005-04:00

Tides....hurricane tides in fact.

Here's the projection right on up through the end of September. Though direction is correct almost all the time, the magnitude cannot be matched exactly, for sure. I might continue on with this experiment offline, but will not be posting it online beyond this date. It seems funny to me that people are more interested in exact or near exact magnitude of movement matches than they are with getting the direction correct. I guess they have differing trading interests. When I'm about to make a move, I want to know if I'm making that move into a market headwind (not good) or preferably with the market forces are on my side.

Weekend Update 8-28-10

2010-08-28T13:06:00.003-04:00

Tide chart for the week below. Seems to be tracking fairly well...at times.

This will have to do for now...at least until I can find some better fit. This is the projection to the end of September....not real happy with the correlation, so think of it as an interim projection....lol. Need to find a new way to adjust one or some of the variables. Again, as mentioned earlier, not for trading....if you use these projections blindly you could lose your shirt, or pants for that matter.

Contemplation

2010-08-22T12:46:00.004-04:00

Been working hard lately on a new trading system for stocks, possibly futures as well. As hard as it sometimes seems to be, I have to understand that price movement in one direction doesnt continue on forever. My bad experiece over the years seems to be centered around holding on to equity positions for too long, either watching a bad postion get worse or a good position reverse and evaporate my gains.

To keep things easy I am working on simple moving average two line crossover systems, both simple moving averages and exponential moving averages. I've developed an excel spreadsheet that imports daily data and plots the price charts as well as any combination of price, simple moving average and exponential moving averages. My premise for lazy trading is based on only closing price signals and taking a reversal position on open the following morning. Based on backtesting any of these combinations, the plan is to find the best combo for each stock and use it to get me into or out of positions based on the best results attainable. So far, things look promising, and time be willing, I'll see if I can share it. Fortuneately my skills with excel are such that I can easily changes the variables and see the results instantly. I know, I know, there are probably canned programs out there that will do that for you (Amibroker for sure), but what fun is that when you dont really understand what is going on in the black box. With excel, I can see everything right in front of me.

My idea is to run the system around mostly low priced stocks, under $10, and to take a position each time based upon a fixed amount, maybe $5,000. So, in other words, a $1 stock would be bought or sold at 5,000 shares, a $3 stock at about 1,500 shares. No preference for going long or short would be taken. The whole idea, and where I think the easy money lies, is riding the trends for as long as the system allows me to, without excessive whipsawing. Initially, I think no more than 60% of the entire portfolio should be invested in the system, so that for example, a total $50,000 portfolio would have no more than $30,000 in the system, therefore at $5,000 per trade, no more than 6 positions should be running at a time. All for now, we'll see where this heads and report later. Comments welcomed!

Weekend Update 8-22-10

2010-08-22T12:39:00.002-04:00

Aaaaahhh, not so good this week. In fact, rather terrible....lol. Certainly the poor jobs report last thursday took its toll. Considering mixing in some 10 dma offsets into the formula in some fashion to see how that works out. I had no doubt that at some point we would have an epic divergence of the projection and reality, especially considering how large the projection was forecasting an upwave this past week. For now, I'll sit tight and try a few things...maybe some changes next weekend.

Tide chart below.

Weekend Review 8-14-10

2010-08-14T07:47:00.006-04:00

Well, the nights are starting to cool off where I am...quite the change from what we have been having. Global warming, huh? Been a great summer weather wise though, so who's complaining?

Below charts sums up where we are at this point in August. Projection still tracking very well...havent made any modifications to the parameters this weekend, think I will stick with what I have for now and see how it handles the projected surge next week. Having said that, watch us go in the hopper for the week...lol.

Tickets have been gotten for the 2011 frozen four in Minneapolis next April...also for our annual trip to the Carribean early next year. Its all pay now, enjoy later. Go ahead and sit on my money for 6 months! Have a wonderful weekend, and hopefully I'll see you next time 150 points higher, though that does seem a bit of a stretch.

Weekend Review 8-7-10

2010-08-08T07:39:00.003-04:00

Here are my two main charts for the weekend. The spx projection fell off a bit in the last couple of days but I will stick with the present chart settings and not try to fine tune it now. Interesting week coming up with WWW on wednesday...perfect chance for the market makers to take it down into or around that date, which also fits pretty well tidally speaking. I've been dabbling with some customized stock trading systems, but nothing quite yet to report.

One More Slight Adjustment

2010-08-04T19:26:00.002-04:00

This time it's only a one day adjustment of the moving average. Fits extremely well for right now. So, if we have a one day 'shock', do I continue with the present projection or make a one day adjustment? I dont know at this point, decision to made later I guess. What I do know though is that if this model holds up over time, I may have to take it off the board. Seems to me it would be counter productive to make it public....I hope to make money off of it, you, on the other hand, are on your own. :-)

Weekend Stuff - 7/30/10

2010-07-30T21:26:00.005-04:00

Here's the weekly tide chart. Supposedly a top coming up mid week, but if you check the composite tide-clx chart below, no such top will be found. Based on only two weeks of history, I have to go with the composite chart.

The new moving average used in my composite clx-tide charts seems to be working quite impressively. Of course, we havent had much in the way of volatility in this time span. What will be most interesting is how it holds up when the averages really start to move. I have to believe that the projection chart will not mimic these one day shocks we often get in the market, but we'll see. Having fun with it....just watching, comparing and shaking my head in awe. BTW, I have increased my long positions in anticipation of the August projections. We'll see how that turns out.

Mid Week Tweak

2010-07-28T20:01:00.003-04:00

A small calibration change has been made to the projection model and seems to fit very well, at least for now. Basically I changed a moving average by 3 days and the results look like this. Lets see how it holds up for the next week or so.

I Meant to Add

2010-07-24T10:37:00.003-04:00

Based on the results of the first week of spx projection, there will be no need to make any adjustments or calibrations at this time. I am sure as time passes here that some baseline adjusting will be needed, but for now, we sit tight and watch.

Just pondering here, but wouldnt it be nice if it is possible to mirror the spx movements with relatively good success in the future? Consider the opportunities. ;-)

Tidal Trend Update and SPX Projection Results

2010-07-23T17:27:00.007-04:00

Below is the weekly tidal trend chart and the first week results of my spx projections based upon, in case you havent been paying attention, DW's clx model and my tidal model (see below). I wont elaborate on how the two are mixed at this point.

Tidally speaking, we should have entered a short weekly downtrend at the end of this week...but apparently no so based on friday's numbers. I think bears call it market manipulation or something similar:) More on the boys fingerprints on the markets later.

Well, first week of projecting the market I have to say was even more successful than I could have possibly hoped for. Other than the obvious take down of the market on wednesday afternoon and subsequent re-launch of the snp futures in the wee hours of thursday morning (check it out for yourself - the boys were hard at work), it appears our projection were spot on. Obvious that they wanted to clear out some long stops before what they have ahead of us. A word of caution, before you start trading off this model, lets give it some time for observation....there is such a thing as beginners luck...in any event, very encouraging start, lets see where it goes from here. It is said no one can project the markets and I believe that, but that doesnt prevent some of us trying. :-)

Weekend Update and Projection

2010-07-18T07:15:00.003-04:00

I'll throw these two charts out there without commentary as I am about to head to Boston to take in a Sox game. Beautiful day, should be fun....hope yours is as fun as mine.

Something Experimental

2010-07-15T18:56:00.004-04:00

That I just started working on below. It's a projection of the SPX for about 30 days ahead. Very, very experimental at this point...based on some input from Don Wolanchuks clx and my tide data. It looks ahead using his offsets combined with the cycles from the tidal data. I am sure I will need to calibrate the projections as time goes on because right now I have no idea how far out of calibration they might be. Anyway, I'll keep ya posted on a weekly basis and we can just watch any maybe learn something in the process. Tally ho ole chap!

Weekend Update 7-11-10

2010-07-11T19:59:00.003-04:00

Back to inverted trends already? Does look like it. I still think we go up here at least to the end of August or early into September based on the tides. And there's more evidence but thats for a later time. Please excuse the lack of posts...been a very, very busy summer with way too many projects going on. Its what keeps us sane though, I guess.

Weekend Update 6-25-10

2010-06-25T18:28:00.004-04:00

Let's see what the bulls got, if anything here. Can't really say its do or die time for them quite yet, but its quickly approaching. Probably one spark of good news would do the trick, but who really knows. Myself? Watching, with caution. Good to see the markets back in synch with the tides at any rate.

Weekend Update 6-20-10

2010-06-18T17:30:00.004-04:00

Interesting that we have a turn on the longest day of the year. And it's supposed to be a high. For the bulls, I think it may be important that this next trend get inverted from down to up. If it happens I expect it to really begin a run to the upside. If not, well we can look for more garbage.

Crossover Update 6-12-10

2010-06-12T09:39:00.003-04:00

Below is a chart of the snp crossover technique as I see it. You can see the 1,050 downside target was met with no further downside targets indicated at this time. We will be keeping an eye on any future targets as they develop.

Hey You, Get Outta the Boat !!

2010-06-11T17:07:00.009-04:00

why, you ask? Because I need room to load up the boat. Yup, we are heading higher, much higher and I suspect with some speed. So, monday and tuesday I'll be in a real shopping mood.....for stock that is. May even take some futures positions. Next stop spx 1,400. Evidence you might ask? First of all, I reference the larger timeframe tidal chart below. Secondly, we have an upturn tidal date coming up on tuesday. Third, Don Wolanchuk's clx material points to an upturn in stocks with his 30 day offsets looking really bullish, and last but certainly not least, of course Joanne's snp xover techniques shown below having reached the downside target of 1,050as I had called. Too many things lining up for a launch for me to remain bearish. All these techniques of looking at the markets are not the commonly used methods...and thats why I like them. You could also reference the usual and normal technical indicators that are pointing up as well, but I'll leave that to the gazillion other blogs out there to do that.

BTW, she agrees. And she is, THE authority.

Weekend Update 6-6-10

2010-06-06T07:24:00.005-04:00

Before I head to the airport for a flight to Texas I thought I'd throw this chart out there. It appears the boys had a little fun with the investing folks last fryday....a not too uncommon happening especially on the last day of the week. I'm looking for a reversal up on Monday and an inverted tide trend next week. I expect we'll have my 1,050 snp futures target hit sometime monday (probably monday evening). We'll see. And no, I'll have nothing to do with oil leaks in the Gulf next week....its the business of building a railroad lift span bridge to Galveston that has my attention.

Reason to be Bullish

2010-06-03T18:55:00.004-04:00

Here's the mother of all tidal charts for your perusal. If you plot the dominant cycle of the tides, as I have, you'll see the very strong tendency of the markets to follow these swings. It's hard to argue with this chart.

Oopsy...What Goes Up, Must

2010-06-01T19:48:00.005-04:00

come down....using the xover technique indicates a current downside target of 1,050 snp futures seeing that the 1,400 target is now on hold. We'll keep an eye on it. Someday soon I want to get back to the "greening" of my home, but for now I've lightened up about 30% of my stuff....perhaps more if 1,050 is taken out.
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Weekend Update 5-28-10 - Turn at Hand?

2010-05-31T06:38:00.005-04:00

It sure has the looks of a turn at the tide bottom date, doesnt it? If so, after a few inverted trends, we would be back on track. Some people thinking we have entered another bear market....most notably I guess is Terry Laundry. I havent been following him for very long, but his technique surely sounds convincing.

Not Looking So Good

2010-05-22T06:46:00.010-04:00

Whenever I see the market bucking the tide trends as it is now, I get a little bit twitchy. Chart below shows two distinct tidal uptrends in a row that have been defied by ms. market. Its time to get more defensive in my view...I have taken some off the table last week, but perhaps more work is in order early next week. Hate to do it, but my gut is telling me we havent seen the end of selling quite yet. My initial guess, and its only that, is that we may see some lazy work to the upside until midway through the current downward tidal trend, following by a surpise to the downside mid week through the end of next week. In other words, been ugly, could get uglier. The only thing that really casts doubt in my mind is a general sense of newly found bearishness I sense among Joe Q Public and many of the so-called experts and gurus. When I hear fellow employees say they've taken profits, it makes me wonder if the market will just prove everyone wrong. But for now, a little caution to protect profits over the past year+ seems prudent. Be careful out there. One thing I have learned over the years is that the market simply loves to take trends to an extreme, either up or down, and right now there is no question we have entered a downtrend.

Weekend Update 5-14-10

2010-05-14T20:47:00.003-04:00

Monday should be interesting. Important point in time for the bulls here. Now we see if the bears can take control of the markets.

Epic Fail !!

2010-05-08T08:05:00.002-04:00

Wow...this has got to be one of, if not the biggest, tidal failures of all time. What caused it, other than the fact that the markets seemed due for a large correction? I could go on and on about possible reasons behind this large move, but you've probably heard and read a million different things already so I wont bore you with more. Just remember that from time to time these things happen...they're not pretty nor profitable (unless you were short).

So, what happens now? I think a quick recover to previous highs is pretty much out of the question. Too much damage in confidence I think for that to happen. I prefer a scenario where we bounce around for a little bit with some pretty decent volatility followed by some sideways action throughout the summer months. My guess is that it may be difficult to make money in either direction for a bit...perhaps the nimble trader who can get in and out can profit, but its all pure speculation on my part. The market Gods will speak soon enough. Be careful out there.

Weekend Update 5-1-10

2010-05-01T07:07:00.003-04:00

Well now...things got a little bit more interesting around this latest tide turn date. Volatility appears to be returning to the market, of course you have to keep a fridays action in perspective because they can be wild and crazy trading days. It will be interesting to see if this volatility marks a top in the markets (sell in May, go away) or whether they are just shaking the trees trying to get more investors out of the markets before a spring and summer run up. I guess I'd have to vote for the latter. As always, time will tell.

Mid Week Chart 4-27-10

2010-04-27T18:33:00.001-04:00

I'll leave to you to draw your own conclusions.....

Weekend Update 4-17-10

2010-04-17T10:41:00.005-04:00

Certainly had a dump down yesterday into the tide low date. Now we see if it is the low of the move for next week. Sentiment seems to be a little on the frothy side, but not unusually high for all the movement we've seen in the upward direction. My target of 1,200 which was stated about a year ago, and laughed at on one other board in particular, has finally be hit. I love it when a plan comes together....lol. Now we see if the 1,400 area gets hit as well in the months ahead. Here's a look at the snp crossover again...thanks to the work of Joanne over at Wollieworld.

Mid Week Chart 4-13-10

2010-04-13T20:26:00.003-04:00

DONT FORGET TO DO YOUR TAXES !!

Just finished mine finally and submitted....relief.

2CS and SnP Crossover

2010-04-06T20:47:00.007-04:00

It's been awhile since I posted these....first Tom Drake's 2cs indicator of sentiment. You can see it is hovering above the logarithmic trendline, much like it did from 2004 through 2007. We shall see if the markets continue to react in the same fashion as they did then.

Following chart is the snp crossover technique, as I draw it, from Joanne at Wollie World. It still indicates unfilled targets above the market. Time will tell.

Weekend Update 4-3-10

2010-04-03T08:05:00.002-04:00

As Joe mentioned below, we do look to be coming off a low here. Approaching 1,200....that target has been out there for a seemingly long, long time. I believe its destiny. :) Anyway, happy Easter to everyone!

Mid Week Update 3-24-10

2010-03-24T18:17:00.001-04:00

Weekend Update 3-21-10

2010-03-21T20:06:00.003-04:00

Well, finally got back from vacation...need another week to recover from it, lol. Not much to report yet at this point. First day of spring though!

Time Off

2010-03-11T11:31:00.002-05:00

I know things have been slow, well they're about to get slower. :) I'll be sprawled out on a Carribean beach or sipping a Pina for the next week...though I will be thinking of you all. :-) We usually do it once a year, and really looking forward to this year. Good luck next week, trade well!

Weekend Update 3-6-10

2010-03-06T08:57:00.002-05:00

I'd like to be doing more on this site, but have been busy with other things as spring approaches. Anyway, here is this weekend's update with the expected rise coming into a turning point on tuesday. Maybe I'll get a chance to update Tom Drakes 2cs this weekend so we can all see where we sit with his sentiment indicator. Keep in mind, there are still some unreached goals in the 1,200's that by any stretch seem unlikely to be tagged, but the market has a way of making the unrealistic...reality.

My daughter has requested a tumbling composter of her own....which is not a big deal, but shipping it from Maine to California sure is. Anyone want to make the delivery? lol....It must be 30 or 40 bucks just to move it that far, just a guess. But, thats what daughters do....(make unreasonable demands on dad!) I'll be heading to the island of Culebra the week after next, so maybe before we head out I can get it built and shipped.

Weekend Update 2-27-2010

2010-02-27T15:05:00.004-05:00

As February comes to a close, we are looking at a low on monday, March 1st then up into March 9th or 10th....too close to call the difference. I'm positioned for a quick down on monday and then a recovery....we'll see what happens.

On the green front, things have been a little slow. I finally got cleaned up (tools,etc) from the solar project.....the compost tumbler is in test mode now but cold climates and composting dont mix well. Project "hydro" is now on the back burner after some disappointing flow observations. I felt I had enough water to make it a go, but upon additional observations, that is in doubt. Two other projects are being contemplated once spring breaks....more on those later. Thinking about spring and how many hedges I now have to take care of, I have a bid in on a gas powered hedge trimmer at ebay.....we'll see how it goes. :)

Weekend Update 2-20-2010

2010-02-20T08:47:00.004-05:00

Tides say we have a turn monday and this seems to jive with da cheif's clx data. Not much to report....markets seems sleepy to me, but I've been busy on other things so maybe it just seems that way to me. I would not be at all surpised to see an extended uptrend begin here into the May timeframe.

Weekend Update

2010-02-12T21:07:00.001-05:00

Better late than never....busy, busy weekend and havent gotten the time to put up a chart. Sort of sloppy in here and difficult to decipher patterns, trends and tops and bottoms. My guess tonight is that we may see the low during Sunday evening trading and have an up opening.

Brrrrrrrrrrrr....it's chilly

2010-02-06T08:01:00.004-05:00

Chilly outside and chilly in the markets right here. Hard to figure how current action is fitting into the tide picture, unless we get a huge move up on monday to make the trend correct, but then we have to follow that with another swoop for the downtrend ahead of us. Dont really see that happening. So instead, it's looking more like an inversion again in this trend, then we see.

Many are thinking last fridays reversal market a low....I'm not convinced yet. Lets see what sunday night futures have in store first.

Don't Like It

2010-02-03T18:47:00.003-05:00

No I dont like the way the markets acting in here. It just looks sluggish and spent to me. So, unless things change, I plan to take a third off the long side table this friday as a precaution. I can always get back in if I see strength. But I also have other indications that we might be rolling over in front of something more substantial on the downside. Though some targets of mine havent been hit yet, there's no guarantee they will and this run since last March has been very to good to us. So why get piggish in here? Of course I might see things entirely different tomorrow......its my perogative.

Pig Pile !!!!!!

2010-01-30T09:20:00.007-05:00

Sure looks like it, doesnt it? Remember playing that as a kid? Amazing more people werent just squished to death...lol.

Anyway, for whatever reasons, the bears are piling on during this swoop down, expecting more weakness to follow. They could get it right this time....or maybe not. :) There should be, by now, a pretty good sized boatload of 'em short as all hell....no reason for the boys not to take them to the cleaners. Keep in mind, I still have unreached targets above the 1,200 zone and I believe we see this done before long.

In the world of greenage, project #3, the compost tumbler, is coming along just fine. Actually I am building two, the prototype, which I will give to my sister-in-law Jane, and one for ourselves. In fact, I am about to head out the door now to deliver her compost maker....she's into that sort of thing, so she should appreciate it....especially since its free, better built than anything you can buy, and delivered to your door fully assembled !! (I must admit, I am just the greatest brother in law anyone could have. :-)

Mid Week Update

2010-01-27T19:49:00.003-05:00

Just a chart today, without words.

DIY (Do It Yourself) Project #3

2010-01-24T11:42:00.006-05:00

The markets are just too damn depressing. First there's drops, and droops, and now there's looming taxes.

Let's build something ! Green project #3 (since the hydro job is on hold pending further data gathering), will be the construction of a build-it-yourself compost tumbler. Those of you who have vegetable or flower gardens should appreciate this. Compost is to gardens as blood is to animals. It truly is the lifeblood of plants.

So, the idea is to build a large enough bin to store the compostable material (table vegetable scraps, lawn clippings, leaves, etc, etc, etc, etc) We dont want something we have to pitchfork every friggin weekend and bust your balls just to get it to work. So here's what we do. Go out and get yourself a 55 or 65 gallon plastic drum with a removeable top. See picture below (how about that snow, huh?). I bought two of these beauties from Bob the Barrel Man (seriously) here locally for $25 each. These are rugged plastic barrels which were used to store and ship hot peppers from Peru to their destination I believe somewhere in Connecticut. They have a nice black cover that easily unscrews for simply filling and emptying of the barrels. Very nice. More later on how we put the whole package together.

On a seperate note, my digital camera seems to be on the fritz. Although pushing 10 years old, it seems to washing out pictures with too much light at times. As if the shutter is staying open a tad longer than it should. Maybe a little oil is needed !! :)

Pop Goes the Weasel

2010-01-24T11:16:00.004-05:00

Ha, ha, ha... I dont really think it will be that easy, do you? Who knows, maybe thats the way the boys in control wanted this run to end.

I still have unreached targets above the market in the 1,200 zone and dont forget that Tom Drakes 2cs seems to be pointing towards sentiment behavior right now more characteristic of a bull market as opposed to a bear market rally. And then there's the elliot wave....I repeat, and then there's the elliot wave....which tells us absolutely nothing because all previous E-wave guesses have been wrong, no two people can agree on a count and its all useless drivel to begin with anyway. So forget about paying any attention to anyone claiming to have the guru answers through elliot wave. Aint gonna happen unless its purely by luck. The whole thing about a stopped clock being right twice a day really does apply to these people.

So, where do I stand from a tidal perspective? Mid february I have been saying all along we will have a meaningful correction. I'll hopefully post the substantiating chart next weekend. Until then, hang on through these pre-prepatory major correction convulsions....it doesnt reverse on a dime, right ?

Weekend Update 1-17-10

2010-01-17T07:23:00.008-05:00

Halfway through January already. How time flys. Somewhere I read: "life is like a roll of toilet paper, the closer you get to the roll, the faster it goes". Aint that the truth.

Well, below is the weekend shot at the eminis and tides. If you believe it, and sometimes its hard I admit, we are looking at a tidal bottom last friday. Could it be we've seen the low down below 1130 on friday already? As always, time will tell.

Hydro Project 2 may be shelved for the time being. I did a flow check yesterday and it was not encouraging. Apparently we seem to be drying up for some unknown reason and I would not like to have water flow shutoff by mother nature and have the system just go on vacation for months. So, more study is needed....in the meantime, I'll be posting some calcs to determine possible energy production based on some assumptions going forward. As you might know, the really nice thing about small hydro is that, given adequate constant flow, it runs 24-7 and does not shut down when the sun doesnt shine or wind doesnt blow....but, you gotta have water.

Tides Flow, So Does Water Downhill

2010-01-14T19:52:00.003-05:00

As bad as this doodling is that I threw together today, it sort of gives the idea in a very cartoonish, amateurish way. Anyway, here's a terrific site a friend who was (now retired) actually manager of a very large hydro station sent to me. Good stuff for anyone wanting to know state by state what is out there for assistance on many levels.

http://www.dsireusa.org/

Tom Drake's comment below reminded me to post his 2cs chart. Looks to be at a potentially interesting point here.

Tides Rock !

2010-01-12T20:04:00.002-05:00

Like following the bouncing ball. Its as simple as that. Yes, anyone can make a pittance of money in this market on the short side .....if he pays attention, and watches the tides. So I did it and scalped handsomely on the short side as a novelty today....just to prove it can be done. But, its a bull market, so dont try making a living on the short side here....not good for your health or welfare.

Yeah I know....not nearly as interesting as building solar panels or even close to building a hydroelectric station in your backyard.......but the title of this blog is, afterall, tides-trends-trading......not green power, unite! So, I guess, as long as there is interest by many on receiving the keys to the markets, I'll keep unlocking the door.....at least until I either grow bored or no one shows interest anymore.

Project Two - Low Flow, Low Head Hydro

2010-01-10T13:32:00.016-05:00

Okay, project number 2. Quite a bit more ambitious than the solar project. Here's the plan....I have a small drainage channel that runs around the back of my propery, and it appears that it runs all year long. The flow is small, I estimate maybe only a 1/2 cubic foot per second right now (winter) and am not sure what it would flow in the spring, summer or fall.

So, I take that water and convey it to the area that is called "entrance to pond" area. The conveyance structure, since the flow is low, would probably be an open wood box kept level and supported on legs...about 100' long. The water would be brought to the pond entrance area and dumped onto an overshot water wheel to turn a shaft that would then be taken through a speed increaser and finally to a simple generator or alternator to produce power.

That's it in a nutshell.....cost? I have no idea right now, but part of the cost will be securing the land rights to build the waterwheel and operate it. I probably would need to buy the land on which just the pond is situated. Added benefits? In the winter I can turn the powerhouse into a warming hut and use the pond for a skating rink. Imagine how much fun we could have with the grandkids there as they grow up over the years. Okay, here's some snowy pictures....wish I could show more, but I think this will give you the idea.

Entrance to the pond below.

Entrance to the pond again.

Entrance to pond looking toward pond from our house.

Another view of entrance to pond

Note rock wall along right side of picture. At the upper end of the rock wall is where the water would be picked up and then conveyed down to the pond.

Middle of rock wall straight ahead, note pond on right side of picture

Standing on back deck, pond straight ahead.

Closing in on Solar One

2010-01-09T14:59:00.013-05:00

For any who have interest in my solar project, below is an excellent link that I used almost exclusively:

www.diypvsolarenergy.com/basic-solar-panel-design/

With few exceptions, I followed this site in the construction of my panel. I havent put a lot of notes next to my pictures....I really didnt have any intention of making this site a do-it-yourself tutorial for building solar panels. Just some pictures of my project to show that anyone can do it....lol. Cost?

5/8" Exterior Plywood $3.84 Lowes
.08x4'x2' Plexiglass $19.37 Lowes
Pegboard $3.39 Lowes
37 each 3"x6" Solar Cells - Kit $55.30 Free Sun Power
Galv. Screws $5.00 Lowes
Silicone Caulk approx. $1.00
Paint Free
12 Gauge Wire Free
Project Box approx. $3.00 Radio Shack
Wire Terminals $3.86 Radio Shack

Plywood, pegboard and caulking compound pro-rated costs.
--------------------------------------
total $94.76

So there you have it. $100 for what should be approximately a 60 watt solar panel. As you can see in the pictures below, outdoors I am measuring over 20 volts in bright sun. But, I must be doing something wrong in my attempt to measure amperage, because the multi-meter is not registering anything. Perhaps I need to run this to ground to get a reading?

Over 16 volts inside the house.

Drilling the plexiglass for the attachment screws.

The "project box" from Radio Shack in place on the back of the panel. I guess project box is nothing more than a fancy word for junction box.

Over 18 volts even in the shade.

The Weekend, Update Of Course !

2010-01-09T09:00:00.003-05:00

It's got to be the calm before the storm....this just cant continue, can it? If I were a betting man, and I occasionally am, I'd think we'll get a little dump in here soon, sort of a hard-down day...not a crash....just to keep everyone's attention. Followed by, what I think might be, the final leg up on this wave from March 2009. My stuff is hinting at a mid February top before some kind of a meaningful retracement. So that's likley the way I'll play this with my 401k and other investments.

Mid Week Chart

2010-01-06T17:40:00.003-05:00

Creeping our way towards 1,200...sure is boring. Nothing much to report other than 2010 so far, repeat so far, seems like just a continuation of everything we've seen for the past 2 months. I guess if it aint broken, dont fix it...:)

More Solar, Less Tides...

2010-01-03T12:56:00.011-05:00

Weekend Update and More Solar

2010-01-01T15:47:00.014-05:00

We got done last week what was expected....a lower low down into the close...all that remains now is to see what might happen on monday to give us the tidal low...we also have Don Wolanchuk's Wierd Wollie Wednesday coming up next week on the 6th of January...so there are reasons aplenty to expect a low early in the week.

Solar Panel Project:

Some pictures of last weeks progress. My collector will be 24" wide x 48" long (.61m x 1.22m). Around the perimeter of the panel and across the center of the panel will be 1" x 1" pine strips. Screws will attach the strips to the 5/8" thick plywood. These pictures show the painting and mounting of the pine strips. I put on one coat of Sherwin Williams latex prime and 3 coats of Behr latex semi-gloss enamel over the prime coat. Why these products? Because that's what I had hanging around the house.:) Should be fine, but it is important to adequately protect the wood and prevent moisture from entering the panel as this panel will be outdoors constantly in very severe condtions. All connections were glued (Elmers wood glue) and screwed before painting.

After the cells have been installed and all wired toegther, a sheet of plexiglass (also 24" x 48") will be installed and sealed over the pine strips to keep the weather out. Enjoy the pictures....next we'll take a look at assembling the solar cells and installtion into the panel. Oh, one final thing. The solar cells will be mounted on each of 2 pieces of pegboard. Each piece of pegboard is 20" x 22" and when attached into the panel will leave about 1" of clearance all the way around the edge of the pegboard. This will become clearer in future pictures.

Mid Week Update and Shine On

2009-12-30T08:14:00.005-05:00

Looks like this morning that the futures are rolling over a little bit as expected. Still early, so we'll see what develops. Next turn date is monday, Jan 4th, 2010 and is a low. Very subdued markets over the holidays, enough to put you to sleep. On to other things this morning.

Below is a picture I took of the beginning of my solar project.

These are just some of the components that go into building a do-it-yourself solar panel. What you see here is a 2'x4' piece of 5/8" plywood, some pegboard, 3 of the total of 36 polychrystalline solar cells that will be joined in series to make the complete solar panel, tabbing wire, a solder flux pen, gloves for handling the very fragile solar cells, and 4 small diodes which act like check valves so that the power generated from the cells can only go in one direction.

The cells, diodes, tabbing wire and flux pen all came in the fed-ex box you see in the picture. This stuff came in a package kit I bought on ebay. The cells are 3" x 6" and are very fragile, sort of like a potatoe chip. The general idea here is to connect 36 of these cells in series to get an output from the panel of about 18 volts, since each cell should put out .5 volts under direct sunlight. Anyway, we'll delve deeper into the project in future blogs. Right now I have the panel box built and painted and am about to begin soldering the cells together. Steady as she goes, matey!

Mid Week Chart - Ho Ho Ho

2009-12-23T09:03:00.008-05:00

I should know better. Doubting the tide trends most often does not pay. This trend, after a questionable start, seems to be shaping up nicely now. Of course it is Christmas, so what would you expect?

I am humbled by the donations and support that the followers of this blog have exhibited in recent days. It just shows once again the true character of the great people of this country in a small, yet visible, way. As strange as it might seem, it helps give me the confidence that folks out there are finding my work useful to them in their trading or analysis of the markets. It may seem insignificant, but it is not, at least not to me. So, to those of you who made any donation to this cause I want to thank you sincerely and wish you and yours the Merriest of Christmas and a healthy and Happy New Year. And let's not forget profitable !!

Yes, It Is

2009-12-20T17:19:00.006-05:00

that time of the year. For giving and receiving. I have spent many hours in the past and not quite as many now, coming up with these tidal turn dates. I hope and trust these dates have been beneficial to you in your trading strategies. Are they always correct? Hell no, but they are a lot better than most anything else you'll find out there. So what am I trying to say? Its simple. We all want to know our efforts are not for nothing. An occasional atta-boy is good, but if you really like what I am trying to do here, a token measure of your appreciation through a donation speaks volumes. Its what makes me know that you REALLY do want me to continue with this effort. If you dont have any appreciation for it, let me know and I'll discontinue this adventure. Afterall, 90% of what I have done here for the past several months has been for the readers, not for myself.

Down at the bottom of this blog is a donate button. Please use it; no matter how small the donation, it is welcomed. You see, I have a project starting here at home and that is the building of DIY solar panels. Donate through paypal and that donation will go directly to this project and if successful, I'll post in the future the progress of this project. In reality, your donation actually does go to the greening of our planet and the reduction of my carbon footprint!

Weekend Update 12-20-09

2009-12-20T13:13:00.009-05:00

It may be the time to be merry and all that, but it's also the time to be busy at all kinds of things. At least thats MO right now. Anyway, above chart posted just a week before Christmas with an expected high going into Christmas day. Not much exciting going on right now as the trend has been flat and sideways for the past month or so.

Above is the S&P crossover technique that is used to target future price levels. As you can see, I have simplified the signals a bit and two of the signals have been met with 3 others still to be reached. These remain in the 1,200 snp area and up around 1,400. Yes, they are still "live" targets that will be hit before any type of a major correction.

And last by surely not least is Tom Drakes 2cs. Not much happening here just as not much has been happening in the overal markets since early November. Interpretation? Sentiment still remains at overly bearish levels.

Weekend Update 12-12-09

2009-12-12T07:29:00.005-05:00

There....that should pretty much do it. One whole month of sideways action should now be over and with it the consolidation prior to new highs. So, we could see a blip downward here into the tidal low date on tuesday and then its up, up, up. Not surprisingly I guess is that the high tidal date is none other than Christmas day. Who would have thought that? Why Santa would have, thats who. :)

Mid Week Update

2009-12-09T19:01:00.003-05:00

Can you say inversion? A mild one though, but even still, an inversion. I think we usually get two or three cycle inversions in a row, so I'm anticipating a probable low on monday 12/15/09 to get the cycles lined back up again. And I think that would reset other indicators as well.

Mid Week Update

2009-12-02T18:15:00.002-05:00

Sure looks like an inversion underway here. When the low came in on the 27th of November that should have been the clue that something was up. Best guess now is that we might peak at the end of this week then go down into the expected high on 12/10/09 or the day before that on wierd wollie wednesday. Just when you think everything is clear, someone shuffles the deck on you.

Weekend Update

2009-11-29T08:10:00.005-05:00

An interesting thursday and friday huh? All in all, pretty much a sideways move into friday's high. Lets see how we proceed from here. Bears are calling this a topping pattern, bulls a consolidation pattern. I prefer the latter. You might note I've pulled the uptrend line down to a more shallow angle to better represent what we've seen in the last few weeks. Bottom trendline has not changed for quite some time. Which line gets broken first ?

Mid Week Chart and Thanksgiving

2009-11-25T09:06:00.005-05:00

As of this morning, it appears we are climbing up into the day after Thanksgiving high as expected. Though it looks labored at this time, it is to be expected after such a long and steady advance since last March. For that, I am thankful as my portfolio is much improved from a year ago. As much as I feel the need to protect those profits, I also must be cognizant of the strong possibility that this advance is nowhere near complete as evidenced by the continued bearish sentiment which can be found most anywhere in the blogosphere. Let me ask you this, how many purely bull boards can you name versus just the opposite? Lets face the facts, this decade has pounded the bulls and the bears alike....the end result seems to be fear and loathing of the markets in general.

Enough babble for now. Here's hoping everyone out there enjoys a safe and rewarding Thanksgiving surrounded by the people who really are important ....your family. Enjoy them, for life is indeed short.

Make Me Believe

2009-11-21T09:57:00.008-05:00

Bulls have a little work to do next week to turn this trend around. The all too obvious answer is of course a rally into and through Thanksgiving topping out on the day after turkey day, which traditionally I believe is a strong bullish day. But, the boys may have other ideas here just to trip things up a bit. So dont be surprised to see a trend "inversion" where we bottom shortly after Thanksgiving. Sentiment is still in great shape, and we still have overhead targets yet to be reached.

Mid Week Chart

2009-11-18T19:49:00.002-05:00

Pre-Turkey 2CS Sentiment

2009-11-14T09:36:00.006-05:00

Good time to take a look at sentiment again. Tom Drakes 2cs senticator above on which I've drawn a couple of heavy black lines more or less bisecting the recent sentiment line and the price line. Notice how, as price has maintained a steady upslope since March, sentiment exuberance has actually backed off in the same time period. IOW, as price has remained more or less linearly up, sentiment has gone into a topping pattern and almost looks to be becoming more and more bearish as price marches on upward. We've got a long way to go before this market tops out.

Path of Least Resistance

2009-11-14T08:08:00.004-05:00

Certainly feels to be up, doesnt it? Monday we complete a weak downtrend, unless of course for some reason we swoop down to begin the week.....that would be a surprise to me though.

So, what now? Well, I would like to see some weakness on monday to setup the upcoming uptrend into Thanksgiving. The actual turn date from my data falls on Thanksgiving day, but given the propensity for the day after turkey day to be up, I think its safe to pick friday as the turn....besides, we all take the day off and the boys have their way with the market and a full belly of stuffing, correct?

Needless to say, we completed a "seasonal inversion" in the markets whereby the seasonal changes (increase) in tides and gravity have largely been ignored or overtaken by other factors. My interpretation of what that means or can mean is that now with those forces weakening day by day and week by week, we reap their additional boost to the markets. I think we'll see a fairly strong end to November, a decent correction into the beginning of December and then an Xmas surge. All in due time.

Mid Week Update

2009-11-10T20:25:00.003-05:00

No comments tonight.....too much else going on right now. Good trading !

Up, Up and Away.....Or...

2009-11-07T16:44:00.007-05:00

There are times when this tide stuff just seems to be another smoke screen in the ever daunting task of trying to determine market direction. And then there times like now when it is spot on and like taking candy from the proverbial baby. Guess that's what makes it all interesting and intriguing.

So, we apparently head on up into the 11/11/09 date as a high. Interestingly, the same date coined as WWW by Don Wolanchuk and infamously known for a period of weakness prior to options expirations. So...........will WWW give us a low and the following trend an incorrect tide trend that morphs from a bearish one to a bullish one? Will we instead tag or penetrate the upper trendline as we approach turkey day here in the states? I'm leaning that way, but with some caution. From a personal standpoint, I am probably 75% long throughout all personal accounts and 401k, waiting for a signal to either go further long or take some off the table. I think the next week to two weeks will tell a lot about where we head for the next several months. If I were a betting man, I would say we trend up from here into mid February 2010.

Mid Week.......Yeah, Update

2009-11-03T20:02:00.003-05:00

Sometimes words are not needed.

Path Forward

2009-11-01T17:03:00.004-05:00

Before off hours futures starts trading this evening, I thought it'd be good to get some thoughts and possibilites down on paper so to speak. Regardless of where I think the markets are eventually heading, I think we're at a critical juncture right here where a couple of different scenarios could play out.

First, given that the market is down right here, the possibility exists that short term they will continue on down into the tide turn date and possibly into the bradley date with some accelerated selling. Call it what you want, a strong correction or a mini-crash, it's a possibility that should not be ignored. It's been a great run and opens up the chance to rape the bulls relatively easily at this point. So, if we get this, that opens the opportunity for a good buying spot into the second or third week in November.

If, on the other hand, we get mild selling or even sideways action into the wednesday tide turn date or the bradley date, followed by a correct tide uptrend, then one might expect at the end of that trend, the following down trend could be one to be very wary of if you are a bull.

To summarize, I think caution is called for in this period to see how the markets want to handle a likely and needed correction.

Trick or Treat, Huh ??

2009-10-31T17:01:00.009-04:00

Aha, a little trick for the bulls, huh? Halloween goes to the bears, but ultimately, who cares? With my portfolio up well into mid-double digits, I have little trouble giving some back for the next bull onslaught dead ahead. Oh really, you might say? Well friggit, let's look at some evidence. But first, where we stand currently at the end of October, you know that scary, bad for the market, portfolio eating month of October ?

Where we are is pretty much exactly where we would expect to be....prior to a tide low mid week this week. And, we have a Bradley date shortly thereafter pointing to a turn. And we have bears and even weak handed bulls looking down, down, down. You suppose the markets going to accomodate all this bearish sentiment? Highly doubtful, for as we all the know, the markets will never make everyone rich nor even happy, so forget about that.

Take a look at Don Wolanchuk's clx chart below. Here is plotted the 3dma, 10dma and 30dma of the clx as well as the vaunted aydis all along side the relative movement of the dow.

All indications point to higher prices and in short order. Not shown here is the fact that in a couple days (tuesday or wednesday) there will be negative numbers falling off all these dma's such that the averages will surge upward and so will the market with it. You see, each of these averages mimic the dow in particular and the markets in general. For those not familiar with the clx and wanting a short and sweet primer, here it is. The clx measures the stock inventory that the market makers have on hand at any particular time. See, I told you it would be short and sweet.

On to sentiment. Tom Drake's 2cs in particular is plotted below. With end of week action, sentiment has gone over the top as bear froth abounds. Notice how the 2cs has plunged as the vix and p/c ratios gone out of sight. Great fuel for the upcoming blast.

And last, where are we heading? As it now stands, we've only taken out 2 of 7 targets to the upside! See chart below where the 1,100 has been hit but there remain 4 plum targets in the 1,200 zone and one way up there at 1,400 which will get taken out sooner or later. My guess? 1,200 falls easily by the end of the year....1,400 by February/March timeframe. Who knows what additional targets will develop on the glorious journey up? You know there will be blips and beeps and corrections...just keeping my eye on the most important ball in the game.

Sooooooo....short term look for some weakness early next week before everything gets back into alignment.

Mid Week Chart

2009-10-28T20:59:00.002-04:00

Watching closely. Quick to the bottom trendline, lets see if it holds here. If previous "scheduled" turns during this bull run remain true to form, there should be a 1 to 2 day earlier than expected turn, so maybe Nov 3 or Nov 2 (tuesday or monday).

Clx with Some Tide Mixed In

2009-10-26T19:01:00.003-04:00

Responding to Joe's question below, this chart is a plot of the actual Eastport tides (lowest tide) each day along with Don Wolanchuk's 3 dma of the clx. I wont get into the clx here and now; it is a subject that requires quite a bit of explanation. However, I will say that it marrys and mirrors the tide stuff pretty well.

Anyway, getting back to the subject....You see the black arrow pointing to todays extreme level of tidal swing....what this particular point represents is the highest elevation of the lowest tide in quite some time. In other words, todays tide level (lowest tide for the day) is higher than at anytime for quite awhile. Taking this a little further, we are at a point where the moons gravitational pull on a seasonal basis is low, low, low......we should coincidentally, if you believe low gravity equals higher market prices, then we should be at or nearing a seasonal top........food for thought and a reason for my caution. I know this was short and sweet, but it's a monday....lol.

Let me add that this hypothesis needs additional thought and work, so dont bet the farm on it!

Weekend Update

2009-10-24T10:14:00.002-04:00

Lots of sideways up and down action. Will need a strong monday to make this trend good. Though not shown on this chart, Oct 22, 23 was a Bradley turn date and monday the 26th is one of the strongest tide dates seen in awhile. Turn imminent or another setup to pull more bears back into the market? I moved a little money from small caps into large caps and added a little into bond funds last thursday in my 401k. May make some more adjustments this week depending on monday's action most likely. Still have some unfilled promises in the 1,200 snp range, but may have to wait for those to be hit.

Mid Week Update

2009-10-20T17:46:00.003-04:00

Last week's downtrend whimped out into a sideways move and we're now back into a tidal upswing. Projected top of this trend is next monday, 26th of October. This date, by the way, has some tidal significance in my work and will require special attention when it rolls around. I think right now it will form an intermediate high of some significance in this rally, and will likely result in some lightening up of long positions on my part, and potentially taking of some defensive positions. Just an indication from my charts, not a recommendation in any way.

Hoping to get back to the trading aspects of the tides before too long. A project looms in this respect to attempt to prove or disprove the reality of trading the tides with eminis as the trading vehicle. More on that later, probably in a couple weeks as family is beckoning this weekend. Trade well and stay on your toes, particularly in this timeframe.

Weekend Update, Another Look at 2CS

2009-10-17T09:17:00.004-04:00

Where are we? Well, it appears the Oct 12 turn date was blown out of the water by this bull market as if it never existed. Or has it? Upcoming turn date is monday the 19th which is supposed to be a low.....very possible it could still happen. Since we had options expiration last week and friday was a down day, I suppose you could make the case that options expiration adjustment began friday and another down day or two would do the trick.

Technically, if the ES prints below about 1,075 on monday, this downtrend would be correct, though just barely. So, can we expect the uptrend to resume on monday or even tuesday? I think the answer is yes. Lets take a look at sentiment. Below is the Tom Drake's 2cs updated through last friday.

Although sentiment is approaching the trendline, a reasonable interpretation would be that if this is the start of a bull market, sentiment has room to grow as evidenced by the behavior of this indicator in 2004 through 2006 bull market. But, maybe it is different this time.

In The Grand Scheme of Things

2009-10-12T18:21:00.008-04:00

From Carl Futia's (http://www.carlfutia.blogspot.com/) book, "The Art of Contrarian Trading" comes the plot above which is the SPX monthly with a 4 year or 48 month simple moving average overlay. Carl uses this very simple graph to get a grasp on whether the market is under or over fair value. Price below the moving average indicates below fair value and vice versa. Just another tool for the toolbox. :)

Tide Update

2009-10-11T16:40:00.004-04:00

Just a quick look at where we are this sunday afternoon. Expected high tomorrow (monday), but keep in mind we have options expiration on friday.

Trading the Tides, Part 2

2009-10-10T08:38:00.017-04:00

Last week I posted a few charts showing equity growth if one were to trade the tide turn dates over the last 3 plus years. If you scroll down to earlier posts, you'll see the two charts, one based on what I have termed a 50% entry/exit and the other labeled nirvana trading where the absolute best entrys and exits are assumed (not possible). The reason for these two charts is to frame what is felt to be the absolute best and possibly worst trading results (although it is entirely possible for a trader to do worse than an average 50% entry/exit).

With the extremes set, we should now take a look at the range in between these two. A little more explanation is in order to understand the following charts a little better. When I refer to a 75% entry, here is what I mean. Lets say that an impending tide turn is imminent (for instance this coming monday) such that the trade called for is to close out a long position and reverse to a short position. Also, lets assume that the snp ES range for monday is a low of 1,060 and a high of 1,073. A 75% exit long and entry short then would be 75% of the difference between the high and low, and since we are looking for a long exit/short entry, we want: (1,073-1,060)x.75 plus 1,060. If I have done the math correctly, this translates to a price of 1,069.75. So this price of 1,069.75 then represents a 75% entry/exit for this day.

Similarly, if monday were instead a tide low date (short going into that day) and the price range were the same, a 75% exit/entry to exit short and enter long would then be: 1,073-((1,073-1,060)x.75) or 1,063.25. Pretty simple concept.

Now, lets look at some equity charts with varying degrees of success with average exits and entrys. Below are 3 charts illustrating the results.

At the top of each chart in the title block the entry/exit assumption is shown. Below is a chart with all the charts combined.

The heavy white line has been drawn to show a 100% return on investment, on in this case, starting with a $25,000 account and have it grow by $25,000 annually. Apparently, to realize this type of account growth, the average entry and exit would need to be in the 65% to 70% range based on backtesting data for nearly a four year span. At some point, I would like to go further in the past with backtesting. Again, this return is based on trading one ES contract and has no consideration for drawdowns, which if you are a trader, you would know how those can affect a trader's ability to stay in a losing trade. More on this later.

Mid Week Update and Nirvana Trading

2009-10-06T17:38:00.010-04:00

Above is a chart of where we are on the snp ES as of about 5:35 pm, tuesday 10-6-09, the day after my birthday. :) Clearly the tidal low expected for today actually came in late last week. There seems to be a tendency for a turn date to occur one or two days early in the direction of the predominant trend. In other words, in this bull market, the low and turn upward seems to come in earlier than expected, as if the market can hardly wait to resume it's upward march in a bull market. I will have to check to see if this the opposite occurs in a bear market......In any event, monday the 12th is the next high point of this rally according to the tides.

Now, back to trading. Last weekend I posted a chart based on trading the tides with a 50% entry and exit. Just for giggles, below is a chart of nirvana trading where the basis is that a trader would get the absolute best prices available on the turn dates. Obviously this is not possible, but I post the chart just to frame the boundaries between what should be bad trading (the previous 50% chart) and what is impossible to do (the 100% chart). Now the limits are set and this weekend I'll put up some charts of equity growth based on what we might theoretically expect a trader, only slightly smarter and more experienced than that caveman mentioned earlier, ought to be able to do. Keep in mind this is based on trading a single ES contract and getting the impossible best prices for entry and exits. Also no consideration for drawdowns is included here.

Trading the Tides ?

2009-10-04T09:39:00.014-04:00

Since beginning this blog a little over a month ago, I've touched upon the tides and trends but have said nothing about trading. Let's delve into that area a little bit here. It seems obvious that if the tides are anywhere near consistent pointing to top and bottoms, we ought to be able to trade with this information. So here's what I 've done.
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My tide data goes back a little over 3-1/2 years to the beginning of 2006. I've downloaded the S&P emini daily price data (open, high, low, close) from Tradestation over that time period and laid it up against the tide turn dates I've developed. Since the eminis trade 24 hours a day, understand that the official beginning of a new day is at 4:15 pm est and runs to 4:15 pm the following day.
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An assumption must be made in order to backtest the data. That assumption being at what price on each turn day one would theoretically be able to either buy or sell the emini contract. For this assumption, I've varied the efficiency of the entry and exit points to examine various equity curves based on these entry/exit points. I start first with what I call a 50% entry/exit. What that means is that on any given tide turn date, a trader would only be able to enter or exit a trade halfway (50%) between the high and low of that particular day. In other words, if the tides indicated a turn next tuesday (which they do), and the trading range for eminis on that day was from 1010 to 1030 and the trade required was to go long, then the trader's best low entry price for that long entry on that day would be 1020, or halfway (50%) between the high and the low of that day. As that long trend and trade played out to the next turn date, his exit long and go short price would again be 50% between the high and the low of the turn date range. So, if the trading range on the reversal turn date is between 1040 and 1052, then the exit long and go short price would be 1046.
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Using an excel spreadsheet to tabulate all the entrys and exits for each turn date, I then calculated an equity curve using a theoretical $5 per trade commission cost. Below is a chart of those results dating back to the beginning of 2006 with an assumed starting account of $25,000.

As you can see, nothing special here. Over almost a four year period, a gain of only about $10,000 on an initial investment of $25,000, or roughly 10% annual return. And some fairly wild swings in equity with undoubtedly large drawdowns along the way. Surely, we can do better than this. Well, we can do much better than this...actually much better by improving the entrys and exits on the turn dates. Keep in mind the equity curve above is based on only being able to get average entrys and exits at prices halfway between the highs and lows of each day. Surely, even a caveman could do better. Mid week, I'll put up some more equity curves based on what a trader should be able to do.

Weekend Whirl and Wierd Wollie Wednesday

2009-10-03T09:39:00.009-04:00

Sometimes I'm just amazed at it's predictive power. Maybe I shouldn't be, but show me something more accurate for targeting highs and lows. Not always exact, as nothing is, it just keeps plugging along.

So, its targeting down into next tuesday. I see a couple of things that could trip us up a little bit here. First, it tagged the lower up trend line on friday and secondly, we face the vaunted "WWW" on wednesday. For those not familiar, WWW is an acronym for Wierd Wollie Wednesday. Its significance, as espoused by none other than 16 time winner of the Timer of the Year Award, Don Wolanchuk, is that there is a tendency for the market to be taken down into the wednesday before the week of options expiration or OE. OE occurs the third friday of every month, being on the 16th of October this month. Therefore this coming wednesday is WWW so we might expect a low at that point. So, low maybe tuesday or wednesday.

Those who dont know Don Wolanchuk are missing out on a real market guru gem. He's controversial, outspoken, sometimes arrogant......but he's also good at what he does. So for me, that trumps any fault, and we all have them. Besides, once you get to know the old geezer you'll see he's of a large heart for people. His picture is, by the way, next to the word mega-bull in your dictionary. Don worked with Joe Granville for many years and took his on balance volume work to new heights with his clx. Someday in the future I'll delve into that system for you....but by necessity due to the clx's many intricate features, it is beyond the scope of this blog. However, I can direct you to a full course on the subject as Don has done for many others over the years. I was fortunate enough to get in on the ground floor of his technique in the early 2000's......it has become an integral tool for me and it was the key he says to winning so many timer of the year awards.

On the oppisite side of the bull, if the bear case is taken, this tide turn date and/or WWW will be rejected and the market will continue the short term trend right on down through the trend line and we "crash" at that point. With bearish sentiment as it is right now, not a likely scenario.

I have been running some backtesting on a simple strategy of using the tide turn dates to buy and sell the eminis (ES). I'll get those up on the blog, hopefully this weekend.

Mid Week Update - 2 Charts

2009-09-29T18:02:00.005-04:00

Starting with the standard tide chart. Just barely had a successful trend last week with yesterdays high. This weeks trend into next tuesday is forecast as a downtrend, which seems entirely feasible given where the market has been in recent weeks, and why wouldn't it come down a bit and tag the lower trend line ? Nothing says its got to be that way though.

Okay, second chart. Revisiting Tom Drake's 2cs below. You can see that sentiment has backed away a bit from the log trendline. Does not seem to be a lot of bullish exuberance showing up here yet. My take anyway.

RUH ROH ???

2009-09-24T20:03:00.003-04:00

I'm not saying watch out, but I dont like seeing what I think I'm seeing. Last weeks trend was a bad trend...this weeks also looks bad...at least at this point in time. What concerns me a little is the combination of two things....first, its looking like this weeks is shaping up to be an "inversion" to the downside in the midst of a bull trend. Secondly, if you look down below to the Price Projection post, you see that we have filled price projection #2 right now at 1,065 to 1,070. So, this could be something more than just a blip on the price chart......we would have some work to do to correct this trend which ends on monday.

In any event, my antennae are all the way up. ;)

Update

2009-09-22T19:42:00.003-04:00

Just a midweek update. I've seen targets from 1,085 to 1,200 for this run. I'll pick a point about 1,115 ES before some sort of a correction which begins this coming monday.

Price Projections

2009-09-19T09:39:00.017-04:00

One of the things I've picked up over the years is that there are folks out there in cyberspace who have been studying these markets much longer than I. People who have scientific inclinations that have or are pushing the discovery envelope so to speak. One such person is Joanne Mcable who often is posting at Wollie World http://www.crystalball-forum.com/context/main/wollieworld/msgindex.htm.

She has a terrific talent for research and discovery not often found in this business, often searching for the hidden clues or indicators of market direction. Unless I have misrepresented her work in this area, the chart above describes one of her little discoveries.....though I think she would probably describe it as a work in progress or esoteric piece of work. It is one my little favorites though because it is a price projector and not based on fibonacci work, though there is nothing wrong with that either.

Here's what it will look like. Plot the closing prices of the snp and run a 10 day simple moving average (yellow line) against it. On top of that, plot a 12 day exponential moving average (red line). I use excel extensively so it is easy for me to do it in this manner; most plotting software out there will easily overlay these moving averages over the snp.

Here's how it works. The 12 ema is the faster moving of the two moving averages. It will turn up quicker and turn down quicker than the 10 dma. As price rises or falls, the 12 ema will lead the way until at some point, about halfway along the total price movement, the 10 dma will catch up and cross over the 12 ema. So, what the crossover of the 10 dma over the 12 ema indicates is the halfway point of a price movement.....as the 12 ema turns up and gains momentum, likewise it gets to a point where the momentum of the price movement slows and the ema is eventually overtaken by the slower moving 10 dma. In other words, the moving averages are measuring the momentum off a price low or high. For instance, below is a listing of the measurements taken off the 6 indicated lines:

#1 Price low = 670, crossover = 775, projected top = 880

#2 Price low = 670, crossover = 875, projected top = 1080

#3 Price low = 670, crossover = 920, projected top = 1170

#4 Price low = 670, crossover = 940, projected top = 1210

#5 Price low = 880, crossover = 1020, projected top = 1160

#6 Price low = 670, crossover = 1035, projected top = 1400

As you can see, #1 price projection was met on April 17th, and #2 price projection is in the process of being met right now. Number 3, 4, and 5 have projected to the 1150 to 1200 area within the rectangular box. And lastly, but not leastly, #6 is pointing to a high of 1400 presently based upon an apparent crossover occuring right as we speak. This one may be a bit premature, but it looks to be another crossover in the making, and I am more than happy to give it a thumbs up at this point. :) So, quick summary.....projections 1 and 2 have been met. Projections 3 through 6 not yet satisfied.

One thing to keep in mind of which Joanne herself has cautioned several times. Often the crossover will point to a top or bottom and not the halfway point of a move. This is obvious because as price makes a turn, its 12 ema will crossover down, or up, through the 10 sma making it look as if it is the other way around....i.e. making it look as if the 10 sma is catching and overtaking the 12 ema where in fact it is not, and what is happening is the faster moving ema is responding to rapid price movement instead. Something to watch out for.

In any event, I like this tool. Certainly can be open to interpretation and can sometimes be misleading but arent they all? I keep it next to my hammer..:). Another point is that this tool does not seem to work well with individual stocks, although with some I seem to recall it does. You would have to work with it on various stocks and even play with the lengths of the moving averages to find one that fits best.

What does this all have to do with tides? Absolutely nothing, but I like to stray from the waters edge once in a while.

Looking at That Spando Thing Again.......

2009-09-19T08:10:00.004-04:00

A while back I posted a tidal chart wondering if the possibility of a spando thrust was underway in the snp. Taking another look at the chart today, we see that price has broken above and outside of the narrower trend range and is currently parked up above the upper trend line. In addition to that, yesterday (friday the 18th) was in fact a tidal low date. Does that mean that we are heading back up again next week to satisfy that criteria? We are several days past a new moon and consequently the forces of gravity from the moon are weakening each day. Keep in mind, the hypothesis from Taylor is that decreasing gravity results in higher market prices and increasing gravity in lower prices. Time will tell.

Our last tide trend we have to qualify as a bad trend. In other words the white line on the chart (indicating incorrect trend) "should have" terminated in a price lower than the beginning of the trend because it was supposed to be a down trend. But, bullish forces being as they are right now, did not allow that to happen. Generally, the trends are 75% to 80% correct as indicated by the tides.